Tuesday, September 30, 2008

GOP, Dems blame each other; new plans afoot

by Ronald J. Hansen - Sept. 30, 2008 12:00 AM
The Arizona Republic

With nervous financial markets around the world watching, the U.S. House of Representatives rejected the $700 billion Wall Street bailout plan Monday, touching off the largest single-day drop for the Dow Jones industrials and throwing more turmoil into the presidential campaign.

The bill unexpectedly collapsed on a 228-205 vote. Most Republicans and many Democrats voted against the plan, which has met stiff opposition from the public.

No members of Arizona's congressional delegation voted for the bill, despite tepid support for the legislation from presidential candidates John McCain and Barack Obama and an urgent plea last week from President Bush.

With alternative plans already circulating, many in Washington predicted the House would tackle the issue again after Rosh Hashana, the Jewish new year. The Senate could vote on its own legislation later this week.

Democrats voted 140-95 in favor of the bailout. Republicans rejected it by a 68-vote margin; their vote was 65-133.

Wall Street reacted with a 777-point drop in the Dow Jones industrial average, a $1.2 trillion loss in market value. It was the biggest point loss in history and among the steepest single-day declines as a percentage of the Dow.

Problems with bad mortgage debt have been cascading for more than a year. Wall Street had counted on rising home values as it created ever-more complex securities out of ever-more-risky mortgages. As home values fell and borrowers began to default, financial companies and insurers sustained heavy losses, prompting federal intervention. The continuing fear that a huge, but unknown amount, of mortgage securities has to be written off has frozen the lending markets. The economic crisis is widely viewed as the most serious since the Great Depression.

"We've got much work to do, and this is much too important to simply let fail," Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said. "We need to put something back together that works."

Opponents cited the bill's haste and its lack of adequate protections for taxpayers for its failure to pass.

With all 435 seats in House up for grabs in five weeks, both parties immediately blamed the other after the bailout plan unraveled. Democrats said they delivered the votes needed to support a bill that all agreed was painful but necessary.

Republican leaders said a heavily political speech by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., just before voting began poisoned the outcome. In her speech, Pelosi blamed Bush for the economic freefall and said the price tag on the bailout "tells us only the costs of the Bush administration's failed economic policies - policies built on budgetary recklessness, on an anything-goes mentality, with no regulation, no supervision and no discipline in the system."

"We put everything we had into getting the votes to get there today, but the speaker had to give a partisan voice that poisoned our conference and caused a number of members we thought we could get to go south," said Republican Leader John Boehner of Ohio. Republican Whip Roy Blunt of Missouri said it cost the GOP about 12 votes.

"Because somebody hurt their feelings they decided to punish the country," said Rep. Barney Frank, D-Mass., chairman of the House Financial Services Committee and one of the main architects of the proposed legislation.

Rep. John Shadegg, R-Ariz., said Pelosi's remarks hurt, but he didn't know of any members who changed their votes as a result.

"I am frankly disappointed in her speech because it set the wrong tone," Shadegg said in an interview. "I don't think it changed other votes. Some members were, if I can use a phrase, probably driven further into cement because of her remarks."

The legislation would have allowed the government to buy bad mortgages and other sour assets held by troubled banks and other financial institutions. Letting the companies wipe the bad debts off their books would, leaders say, bolster those companies' balance sheets, making them more inclined to lend and ease one of the biggest choke points in a national credit crisis. If the plan worked, the thinking went, it would have helped lift a major weight off the national economy, which was already sputtering.

The cascading crisis overshadowed the presidential campaign, though McCain and Obama also pinned blame on the other for the lack of a solution.

McCain, who last week said he was leaving the campaign trail to help broker a bipartisan deal in Washington, pointed a finger across the aisle and blamed Democrats for the bill's collapse.

"Our leaders failed to act. I share the anger and frustration that many Americans feel toward reckless and corrupt management on Wall Street and in Washington," McCain said in a prepared statement from Iowa later in the day. "I was hopeful the improved rescue plan would have had the votes needed to pass. . . . Senator Obama and his allies in Congress infused unnecessary partisanship into the process. Now is not the time to fix the blame. It's time to fix the problem."

Obama, who participated in a White House meeting on the bailout last week but has otherwise monitored the progress from afar, attributed the economic crisis to Republicans.

"This is the consequence of eight years of irresponsibility, and it is time we had some adult supervision in the White House," Obama said at a campaign rally in Denver. "They wanted to let the market run free and instead they let it run wild."

Obama promised that, if elected, he would review any bailout upon taking office in January.

For Shadegg, the bill lacked a revision that he said could help struggling homeowners dealing with rising mortgage payments and falling home values. An accounting rule he wants amended effectively assigns values based on current property values, which in a down market makes property seem especially undervalued.

That rule, he said, has forced banks to dramatically mark down home values, exacerbating the problem.

But critics of this approach have said allowing banks to presume higher property values would only invite unrealistic spikes that helped create the problem in the first place.

Rep. Trent Franks, R-Ariz., said Pelosi was willing to allow the economy to suffer to score political points.

"I think liberal Democrats see financial crisis as favorable to them in the upcoming election," he said.

Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, D-Ariz., was bothered by the haste involved in considering the bailout.

"It was rushed to the House floor Monday morning. As the most expensive economic program in the history of the country, I believe Congress needs to take more time to fully consider the implications of such legislation," she said in a written statement.

"I am concerned that this bill did not have adequate taxpayer protections to ensure a fair, long-term return on our investment."

Rep. Harry Mitchell, D-Ariz., also balked at a quick vote. He said the resistance from his constituents was "overwhelming."

"This was the most calls on any one subject since I've been there," he said.

No one in the Democratic leadership tried to change his vote, Mitchell said.

He said he favors a bill that would make permanent cuts on capital-gains and estate taxes to create more confidence in the markets.

In the end, lopsided public opposition, the kind that clogged congressional phones, Web sites and e-mail across the country over the past week made a difference, too.

"Honesty compels me," Franks said, "to say the voice of the people was indeed heard."

 

How Much Will the Bailout Help Housing?


While the $700 billion financial bailout will shore up the banks’ ability to lend, “The key to recovery is finding stability for the housing market,” says Susan Wachter, professor of real estate and finance at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School.

The pace of foreclosures shows no sign of abating, Wachter says, predicting that foreclosures will increase in the coming months and drive down housing prices still further.

"I do not expect a turnaround, unless prices stabilize, until 2010," she says.

Another concern is tightened credit. "There is no question that lending standards for the foreseeable future will be high," says Jay Brinkmann, chief economist for the Mortgage Bankers Association.

But Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody's Economy.com, believes housing will be less affected than other parts of the economy by the bailout.

"The events that we've gone through, despite the government's efforts, will hit the economy hard. We are in full-blown recession," Zandi says. "Layoffs are going to mount and it will be a tough six to 12 months. But the housing market will be the least affected part of the economy because of these things the government has done to shore up housing."

Source: USA Today, Anna Bahney (09/26/2008)

Phoenix home price index dropping at 29% annual rate

Phoenix Business Journal - by Adam Kress

Tuesday, September 30, 2008

A new study shows the Phoenix area continues to be one of the hardest-hit housing markets in the nation.

The Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller 20-city housing index fell a record 16.3 percent in July from a year earlier, the largest drop since its inception in 2000. Prices in the Phoenix area dove 29 percent on an annual basis. Only Las Vegas, with a 30 percent drop, fared worse than metro Phoenix.

Prices in the 20-city index have plummeted nearly 20 percent since peaking in July 2006. A similar 10-city index has fallen more than 21 percent since its peak in June 2006. Both indices measure the largest metro areas in the country.

For the fourth straight month, no city in the Case-Shiller 20-city index saw annual price gains in July. However, the pace of monthly declines is slowing. Between May and July, for example, home prices fell at a cumulative rate of 2.2 percent - less than half the cumulative rate experienced between February and April.

Just seven cities showed positive or flat returns from June to July. That’s down from nine that showed month-over-month gains in June. Atlanta, Boston, Dallas, Denver and Minneapolis all posted positive returns for three months or more.

 

Monday, September 29, 2008

Tentative bailout deal reached

House could vote on $700 billion plan today

Sept. 28, 2008 12:00 AM
Wire services

WASHINGTON - Congressional leaders and the Bush administration have reached a tentative deal on a bailout of imperiled financial markets that could cost taxpayers hundreds of billions of dollars.

The House could vote on it today and the Senate on Monday. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced the accord just after midnight and said it still has to be put on paper. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson talked of finalizing the deal but added: "I think we're there."

The plan would spend up to $700 billion, most of it on buying deeply devalued mortgages from the housing market's collapse and other bad loans held by tottering banks and other investors.

The aim is to prevent credit from drying up and causing a meltdown of the U.S. economy.

Democrats and Republicans from both chambers met with Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson in an effort to forge a compromise on a variety of outstanding issues, including how quickly the government should make money available for the program and whether participating firms should be required to limit executive pay.

"We're moving, we're moving," said Sen. Christopher Dodd, D-Conn., chairman of the Banking Committee, as he re-entered talks after dinner.

Talks also focused on a new issue: how to cover the cost of the program so taxpayers don't get stuck with the bill.

Under the Bush administration's proposal, the government would buy assets that have lost much of their value from faltering financial institutions in hopes of restoring investor confidence. That, in turn, could ease the credit crunch that has seized global markets and made it much harder for businesses and ordinary people to borrow money.

Administration officials have stressed that the ultimate cost of the bailout would be much less than $700 billion because the government would eventually sell the assets it purchased and recover most, if not all, of what it spends.

On Saturday, Democrats said they were pressing hard for further taxpayer protections, including a fee that would be imposed on the financial- services industry if after five years the government had not fully recouped its money. The proposal, which did not surface in negotiations until Saturday, would help win the support of a fiscally conservative group of House Democrats known as the Blue Dogs, an important bloc of 47 votes.

"We believe that the taxpayer should not be left holding the bag at the end of the day, and we've proposed a way to address that," said Rep. Chris Van Hollen, D-Md., a member of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's leadership team.

Paulson and some Republican lawmakers were said to be cool to the idea, though House Republicans also have expressed serious concerns about the cost of the program and have suggested other ideas for limiting taxpayer exposure. A House GOP plan to allow the Treasury secretary to federally insure some mortgages, in addition to the purchase of the least valuable mortgage-backed securities, is under discussion as well.

"While we do believe the Congress needs to act to avert this crisis, we also believe we should not be bailing out Wall Street on the backs of American taxpayers," said House Minority Leader John Boehner, R-Ohio.

But even staunch opponents of the emerging plan said they expected it to pass.

Sen. Richard Shelby, R-Ala., the senior Republican on the Senate Banking Committee, who has refused to participate in the talks, said a "critical mass" was forming behind the measure because of fears that Congress' failure to act would cripple financial markets and devastate the economy.

But Saturday's negotiations were filled with tension, according to participants.

The nearly three-hour negotiations in the afternoon happened around a massive table in Pelosi's conference room, where an ornate portrait of Abraham Lincoln looked down on the negotiators. The number of Democrats in the room became such an irritant that Paulson called Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., to ask why Republicans were sometimes outnumbered 5-to-1 at the table, according to three GOP sources familiar with the call.

Reid told him he would not pull out any of his colleagues. A Reid spokesman, Jim Manley, said, "If the secretary doesn't like it, that's just too bad, because he is going to need the help of each and every one of them to sell the president's plan to the Democratic caucus and the American people."

The focus on limiting taxpayer exposure may help rally support in Congress, where lawmakers have been reluctant to back the hugely expensive and unpopular bailout measure less than six weeks before the November election. But it could unnerve Wall Street, where investors are seeking the largest possible program with the fewest strings attached. They also hope lawmakers approve it before Monday's opening bell.

In his public testimony and private remarks, Paulson has repeatedly emphasized the need to spend $700 billion to soothe nervous markets. At that price, the investment would be more than the $600 billion Congress ratified Saturday to pay for next year's operations of the departments of Defense, Homeland Security and Veterans Affairs.

But the White House and politicians on Capitol Hill have stressed that the rescue package would ultimately cost much less. Some of the mortgage-backed assets at the heart of the plan are nearly worthless now because house prices are plummeting, but their value is likely to rise before the government sells them, when the housing market recovers.

"Many of these assets still have significant underlying value because the vast majority of people will eventually pay off their mortgages," Bush said Saturday in his weekly radio address. "In other words, many of the assets the government would buy are likely to go up in price over time. This means that the government will be able to recoup much, if not all, of the original expenditure."

Bush attempted to address criticisms from the right and left that the plan would bail out irresponsible financiers while doing nothing for regular Americans. Echoing frequent comments by him and his aides, Bush said allowing Wall Street to collapse further would pose greater dangers to the economy, perhaps triggering a "deep and painful recession."

"The rescue effort we're negotiating is not aimed at Wall Street - it is aimed at your street," Bush said. "And there is now widespread agreement on the major principles. We must free up the flow of credit to consumers and businesses by reducing the risk posed by troubled assets."

Democrats, too, tried to play down the $700 billion figure.

"Nobody believes that's going to be the final cost," House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, D-Md., told reporters.

Democratic leaders have emphasized to rank-and-file members that Paulson has told them that he could only spend about $50 billion a month on the securities-purchase program.

Meanwhile, they are pressing to release the money in segments - $250 billion immediately, $100 billion later and the final $350 billion only after Congress is given a chance to object - a move that they say will allow Congress to closely oversee how the money is spent.

All parties to the talks have agreed on at least one point: the need for an oversight board to ensure the program is run properly. The final details of the board remained unclear, and most lawmakers said it was too early to know who is likely to run it.

Hoyer said that whoever oversees the bailout program must instill "confidence" in the public and must not have conflicts of interest with the financial markets or the Treasury.

Negotiators were still haggling Saturday night over details of other provisions, including lawmakers' demands that Treasury require any firms that participate in the bailout to ban "inappropriate or excessive" compensation for their senior managers. Democrats also want to strip certain tax deductions from companies that pay executives more than $400,000.

 

Thursday, September 25, 2008

Warren Buffett: $700 Billion Bailout Necessary



Seventy-eight-year-old financial genius Warren Buffett called the $700 bill U.S. financial bailout plan “absolutely necessary.”

Appearing on CNBC, Buffett said, "We were very, very close to a system that was totally dysfunctional, and would have not only gummed up the financial markets but gummed up the economy in a way that would take us years and years to repair," Buffett said, referring to recent events.

Buffett said, he hoped Republicans and Democrats would put their election-year differences aside and support the plan. "Republicans and Democrats, they've got the interest of the country at heart, and I think that they will do the right thing, but I hope they'll do it soon," Buffett said.

Source: Reuters News, Jonathan Stempal (09/24/2008)

Mortgage Workouts Could be Part of Bailout



Congress is reportedly close to passing the $700 billion rescue of Wall Street.

The compromise draft of the bill, which is being hammered out Thursday, is likely to include provisions sought by Democrats to give Congress greater authority over the bailout and a plan to allow homeowners to renegotiate their mortgages so they have lower monthly payments.

The core of the plan lets the U.S. government buy up soured assets of shaky financial firms and take an ownership stake in the troubled companies to prevent them from going under and leading the country into a severe depression.

President Bush acknowledged in a prime-time television address Wednesday night that the bailout would be a "tough vote" for lawmakers. But he said failing to approve it could have dire consequences for the economy and most Americans.

"Without immediate action by Congress, America could slip into a financial panic, and a distressing scenario would unfold. Our entire economy is in danger," Bush said.

Source: The Associated Press, Julie Hirschfeld Davis (09/25/2008)

More trouble ahead for state, experts say

by Betty Beard - Sept. 25, 2008 12:00 AM
The Arizona Republic

As far as forecasts go, it was hardly sunny. The state's economy is probably not going to get better next year and could get worse, analysts predicted Wednesday.

That gloomy outlook even assumes that Congress' bailout can do something to thaw the credit markets and help people get home, car and other loans.

At an annual forecast breakfast at the Arizona Biltmore Resort & Spa, Scottsdale economist Elliott Pollack said some measurements of the state's economy have set historic precedents because they are so bad, including the dip in retail spending and job growth relative to other states.

He doesn't forecast much improvement next year because of an excess of 55,000 to 75,000 houses on the market, according to his estimates. Other challenges: In-migration has slowed; foreclosures may not peak until next year; and the state is now one of the worst in the country for job growth.

The housing market probably won't get back to normal until 2012, assuming the credit markets don't freeze, he told about 800 people attending the Greater Phoenix Chamber of Commerce/Cox Communications economic-forecast breakfast.

University of Arizona economist Marshall Vest, asked to comment on Pollack's dismal outlook, agreed that the state may not see any decent growth until at least the end of 2009 or into 2010.

Vest said the current crisis in the credit markets would make the recession longer and deeper.

Arizona State University economics Professor Lee McPheters, speaking at a separate function to Valley mortgage bankers, was a little more bullish but said the economy is likely to worsen before it improves. He doesn't expect clear signs of recovery before 2010.

"We're going into three or four very, very bad quarters for Arizona and the nation," he said.

McPheters said economic indicators such as consumer spending, jobs and inflation don't reflect a full-blown recession like the ones in 2001 and 1991.

Pollack also pointed to some positives, particularly dramatically improved housing affordability in Arizona, strong long-term fundamentals and higher gas prices that in the long term will encourage fuel-efficient cars.

"Frankly, the worse thing that can happen is that oil goes back to $2.50 a gallon," he said.

Federal bailout

Pollack said he believes some form of federal support is essential to help ensure housing and other loans, but he has misgivings about the proposed $700 billion federal bailout.

He called it "an astonishingly bad idea" because of all the conditions Congress is proposing and because it rewards those who took reckless risks and failed.

"Those of us who made our house payments and lived within our means will now subsidize those who didn't. And that's not a very good idea for a capitalist system," he said.

Nevertheless, he predicts Congress will pass some form of relief.

Vest said that without some federal action to free up credit, the country is looking at a 1930s-style depression. If the Federal Reserve and Treasury take action, the state is looking at a "recession comparable to what we saw in the mid-1970s and early 1980s."

In the late 1980s and early 1990s, the state also went through a downturn similar to what it's experiencing today, linked to the collapse of savings and loans.

Retail sales

The federal stimulus checks mailed out in the spring slightly boosted personal income and perhaps retail sales in the second quarter. Now, retail sales have sunk sharply, dropping 10 percent from a year earlier in July, Pollack said.

"Retail sales are negative. And they rarely turn negative other than during periods of recession," he said.

"They are way negative in Arizona, down like 10 percent, which is unheard of. There is no historic precedence for this."

Consumers are being squeezed on so many fronts, he said. They have less home equity, have been spending more on gasoline and food, haven't been saving enough in previous years, and generally are just being more cautious.

"You will make that car last another year. You won't go out and buy a flat-screen TV," he said.

Job growth

When it comes to job growth compared with other states, Arizona has had an unusually steep descent, Pollack said.

The state has usually been in the top three in the country.

But it fell from second in 2006 to 22nd last year to 46th in August, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Metropolitan Phoenix fell from its usual perch in the top three, to 27th, out of 34 major metropolitan markets of 1 million residents or more.

"This, for us, is unchartered territory. We have never been here before," Pollack said.

"It's far worse here than most places, and in the 39 years I've been doing this, this is the first time I ever had to say that."

Real estate

Housing will slowly improve, Pollack said, but he expects the commercial market to get worse next year.

"This time next year, you will have a lousy housing market and a lousy commercial market," he said.

In the major commercial markets - industrial, office and retail - absorption has been falling this year and builders are still building.

Vacancies are up and probably will continue rising.

Under construction are 4.3 million square feet of office space, 5.8 million square feet of industrial and 5.1 million square feet of retail, Pollack said, citing numbers from CB Richard Ellis.

One bright spot in the housing market is that affordability has improved, he added.

In early 2000, 64 percent of residents could afford the average home in Phoenix, making it one of the most affordable housing markets west of the Mississippi River.

In 2006, only 27 percent could afford the median home, but today, affordability is back up to 65 percent, although securing financing could be a problem.

McPheters said he believes home prices will reach "equilibrium" when they have fallen an additional 15 percent, equivalent to 2004 values.

Resale values will continue to decline for nine more months, he said, and new-home starts aren't likely to rebound for another year.

Much of that recovery is contingent on nationwide economic-relief efforts, although McPheters noted that Arizona historically recovers from recessions more vigorously than the nation at large.

"Arizona will not independently rebound if the nation does not," he said.

Anne Randolph of Denver, publisher of lore Magazine, said that nationally, 3 percent of owners are delinquent on their mortgages; 1 percent of the homes are being foreclosed.

The other 2 percent are working out their problems with lenders.

 

How Much Is $700 Billion Anyway?



The proposed financial bailout package being considered by lawmakers will come at a cost of as much as $700 billion.

To put it in perspective, using numbers from the U.S. Census, the $700 billion is equal to:

  • About $2,300 per American
  • About $6,000 per U.S. household
  • About 85 percent of the New York State economy
  • The combined economies of all U.S. states beginning with the letter "A": Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, and Arkansas; plus Oklahoma.


The tally for all the various rescue measures launched by U.S. authorities this year runs to about $1.8 trillion. The $1.8 trillion is equal to:

  • About $6,000 per American
  • About $15,500 per U.S. household


Source: Reuters News (09/21/2008)

Prices of homes fell 23% in year

by Catherine Reagor - Sept. 20, 2008 12:00 AM
The Arizona Republic

The latest research from Loan Performance shows the Valley's home prices fell 23 percent between July 2007 and July 2008.

That puts metro Phoenix at No. 8 nationally for the biggest drop in home values. Los Angeles led the nation in this real-estate survey with a 28 percent plummet in home prices.

A few other California cities, Las Vegas and a few Florida cities ranked higher than Phoenix for the biggest declines.

Loan Performance thinks the rate of housing price depreciation is flattening, meaning the biggest declines are behind for most of the housing market.

But most housing analysts agree foreclosures have to also flatten out for home prices to stabilize.

And foreclosures haven't peaked in metro Phoenix or most of the rest of the cities leading the nation for home-price declines.

 

Massive Rescue Effort for Financial Markets



Congressional leaders and the Bush administration are working with Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke to prepare a massive intervention to revive the U.S. financial system.

The proposed plan reportedly includes using hundreds of billions of dollars in government funding to buy bad loans, leaving banks with more money and fewer problems and allowing them to again lend money.

Paulson and Bernanke urged lawmakers to approve the plan rapidly, presenting what some described as a “chilling” picture of the state of the financial system.

Congressional leaders were told that the consequences would be grave if the legislation doesn’t pass by the end of next week.

Taking over Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, creating a new source of funding for investment banks, and assuming control of insurance giant American International Group obviously hasn’t been enough to end the crisis. It hasn’t stopped $79 billion in withdrawals from money-market funds, which are a critical source of funding for the U.S. financial system.

"The costs of doing nothing are enormous," said Rep. Barney Frank (D-Mass.), chairman of the House Financial Services Committee.

Source: The Washington Post, Binyamin Appelbaum and Lori Montgomery (09/19/08)

Wednesday, September 17, 2008

Federal Reserve Holds Key Rate Steady



In the wake of economic crisis, the Federal Reserve voted yesterday to keep the federal funds target rate at 2 percent, where it has been since April. This rate influences mortgage rates, which have been sliding since the bailout of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

"Tight credit conditions, the ongoing housing contraction, and some slowing in export growth are likely to weigh on economic growth over the next few quarters," the Fed said in its post-meeting statement.

"The Fed's non-action suggests that things might have reached a bottom," says Richard Yamarone, Argus Research's director of economic research. "But that is not to say that we're out of the woods yet."

The odds for a quarter-point cut at its Oct. 29 meeting fell sharply. "The Fed is holding firmly to keeping rates steady, but the chances of a rate cut have been put back on the table, especially if growth in the fourth quarter appears to be slowing," says Stuart Hoffman, chief economist at PNC Financial Services Group.

Source: Investor’s Business Daily, Brad Kelly (09/16/2008)

U.S. Takes Control of AIG

These are some big steps toward socialism if you ask me.

 

 

 

 

U.S. Takes Control of AIG

The U.S. government Tuesday night seized control of American International Group Inc., one of the world’s largest insurers, by cutting a tough $85 billion deal that will keep the company afloat and steady the country’s financial system.

The Federal Reserve will lend up to $85 billion to AIG and the U.S. government will effectively get a 79.9 percent equity stake in the insurer in the form of warrants called equity participation notes. The two-year loan will carry an interest rate of Libor plus 8.5 percentage points. (Libor, the London interbank offered rate, is a common short-term lending benchmark.)

The loan is secured by AIG's assets, including its profitable insurance businesses, giving the Fed some protection even if markets continue to sink. And if AIG rebounds, taxpayers could reap a big profit through the government's equity stake.

"This loan will facilitate a process under which AIG will sell certain of its businesses in an orderly manner, with the least possible disruption to the overall economy," the Fed said in a statement.

Source: The Wall Street Journal, Matthew Karnitschnig, Deborah Solomon, Liam Pleven and Jon E. Hilsenrath (09/17/2008)

House panel OKs mortgage lending bill

by J. Craig Anderson - Sept. 17, 2008 12:00 AM
The Arizona Republic

A bill that would preserve no-down-payment mortgage lending flew over its first legislative hurdle Tuesday.

U.S. House Resolution 6694, also known as the FHA Seller-Financed Downpayment Reform and Risk-Based Pricing Authorization Act of 2008, passed the House Financial Services Committee and was expected to move to the House floor for a full vote in the coming days.

Seller-funded down-payment assistance allows home builders and other sellers to pay for a homebuyer's down payment on a Federal Housing Administration loan by funneling the money through a non-profit organization.

Valley housing experts say the practice is being used for at least 70 percent of all new-home loans, and they said the ban would further slow the housing market's recovery.

A federal housing bill passed in July includes a provision to ban seller-funded assistance, which the FHA has called a "shell game" that artificially inflates home prices and carries a higher default rate.

 

Credit crunch slows property sales

by Andrew Johnson - Sept. 17, 2008 12:00 AM
The Arizona Republic

Sales of commercial properties in Phoenix and other big cities were sluggish prior to the recent shakeup on Wall Street.

Lehman Brothers' bankruptcy and Bank of America's plan to buy Merrill Lynch, among other developments, is just further evidence of how dramatically the commercial real-estate landscape has changed this year, local industry analysts say.

Sales of office towers, shopping centers, warehouses and apartment buildings in the Valley hit a standstill in summer 2007. A major cause was the virtual disappearance of commercial mortgage-backed securities - pools of loans on commercial real estate - as a fundraising vehicle.

Banks issued the securities to investors as a way to raise more money to lend to buyers of commercial properties. CMBS issuance slowed dramatically late last summer as financial institutions responded to the residential mortgage meltdown and overall nervousness on Wall Street.

The result has been less money available to finance the purchase of commercial real estate. Lenders also require property buyers to put more money down up front on deals.

In response, sales volume has fallen locally and nationally. For example, the amount of money spent to buy office properties in metro Phoenix reached $3.1 billion between August 2006 and July 2007, according to data provided by Cushman & Wakefield of Arizona Inc.

That number fell nearly 42 percent to $1.8 billion between August 2007 and July.

"All those creative Wall Street financing vehicles - many of them are imploding now, which means there's just less liquidity, and it ripples through the entire system," said Chris Toci, an executive director with Cushman & Wakefield of Arizona Inc. in Phoenix.

Toci has brokered some of the largest commercial building sales in the Valley, including the $93 million sale of one of the Hayden Ferry Lakeside office towers early this summer.

Lehman Brothers and Merrill Lynch both invested in commercial real-estate loans and properties. Both investment banks previously announced plans to spin off or sell some of these loans to other companies amid souring conditions in the commercial real-estate market.

Commercial real estate is considered a riskier investment today because of rising vacancy rates, lackluster rent growth and instability of tenants operating in housing-dependent industries.

Delinquency rates on commercial real-estate loans still are low, but they have risen in the last year. The delinquency rate of loans in CMBS pools reached 0.53 percent at the end of the second quarter, up from 0.31 percent a year ago, according to a September report from the Mortgage Bankers Association.

Those factors, plus varied property price expectations, have created an impasse between buyers and sellers.

Toci and other brokers say there are many cash buyers in the market looking for deals, but sellers aren't lowering their prices just yet.

"There is plenty of capital looking to buy real estate at the right price," said Craig Henig, managing director of CB Richard Ellis Inc.'s Phoenix office.

 

Tuesday, September 16, 2008

Fix your own mess

Sept. 16, 2008 12:00 AM
The Arizona Republic

It may have been the highest-stakes poker game in history.

Federal officials and Wall Street's biggest investment houses gathered over the weekend to decide the fate of two of the nation's largest and oldest brokerages, Lehman Brothers and Merrill Lynch.

The listed assets of Lehman, alone, stood last May at $639 billion, on paper; its debt at $613 billion. Merrill Lynch, a wealth-management giant with 17,000 financial advisers, was said to be worth $100 billion just a year ago. Over the weekend, both firms teetered toward bankruptcy, weighed down with rapidly devaluing real-estate holdings.

And throughout the tense weekend, the Wall Street titans and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson stared each other down. Would the White House approve yet another Wall Street bailout?

As it happens, the financial houses would have to clean up their own mess. As of Monday, 158-year-old Lehman Brothers has begun the long, torturous tumble into bankruptcy. Merrill Lynch, meanwhile, has found a white knight: Bank of America has purchased the company for $50 billion, a deeply discounted price, but far from a fire sale.

Stocks took a serious tumble Monday. The Dow Jones slid 4.4 percent, bringing the market to its lowest point in two years.

Other financial institutions - insurance giant American International Group, for example - are also suffering fallout. This is going to hurt.

That's the bad news. The good news, at least for taxpayers, is that the federal government has said, effectively, that Wall Street's woes are for Wall Street to correct. Washington is getting out of the bailout business. Taxpayers have recently been forced to underwrite far too much of the financial storm. An earlier federal-backed bailout of investment house Bear Stearns, followed by the U.S. takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have, together, added an estimated $5 trillion to the national debt.

Treasury Secretary Paulson, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and Timothy Geithner, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, met with the Wall Street CEOs throughout the weekend, and, to their credit, held to the line in the sand that the U.S. taxpayer would no longer cross.

 

Study: Foreclosures 44% of Valley home sales

September 12, 2008 - 12:29PM

Ed Taylor, Tribune

The latest single-family housing resale numbers for the metro Phoenix area show an increase in foreclosure activity when measured as a percentage of total resales.

According to the Realty Studies department at Arizona State University, foreclosure sales represented 44 percent of total resale transactions in the region during August, up slightly from 42 percent in July and far higher than 20 percent in August 2007.

SEARCH VALLEY FORECLOSURES

Click to view full graphic

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Foreclosed transactions represent home owners losing their property to the lender or successful individual bidders.

The data indicate the local housing market may still have not hit the bottom, although the federal government's takeover of the Federal National Mortgage Association and the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corp. is resulting in lower mortgage rates, said Jay Butler, director of Realty Studies at ASU's Polytechnic campus in east Mesa.

"Most potential buyers still confront a weak economy, slumping levels of confidence and tighter underwriting guidelines," Butler said. "Thus, the local housing market still contains considerable uncertainty over when any potential strengthening can be expected."

Of the total of 7,505 recorded home resale transaction in the region in August, 3,295 were foreclosure transactions, Butler said. In July it was 3,470 out of a total of 8,165. Thus the actual number of foreclosures dropped in August, but the total number of transactions also dropped.

Butler said it's not unusual for the number of housing resales to drop in August because July typically is the end of the resale season. Historically, the remaining months of the year post slower recorded activity, he said.

Foreclosure activity differed widely among Valley cities. For example, only 23 percent of Tempe resales in August were foreclosures, but in Avondale the percentage was 56 percent and in Mesa 41 percent, Butler said.

He added the lower prices are starting to fuel interest in buying by investors, who are betting that prices will rise in the next few years, he said.

Interest is especially high in the lower-priced ranges because more capital is available for lower-priced housing, he said.

For the traditional market, the Valley's median price was $193,550 in August while the foreclosed properties had a median price of $161,875. A year ago the median prices were $258,000 and $220,010 respectively.

But median prices varied widely depending on location. In North Scottsdale, the median price in August for a foreclosed property was $545,000, while the traditional market was $525,000. In South Scottsdale the splits were $219,855 and $242,000, respectively. In Maryvale, traditional transactions were $98,000 and foreclosures were $123,580.

While lower prices are improving affordability for buyers, they are having an adverse impact on potential sellers who are watching their limited equity erode, Butler said.

"Thus lower prices affect the ability and desire to continue owning the home and even overall confidence in the economy, which put additional strain on the local housing market," he said.

Although the numbers during the past year don't look encouraging, the actual percentage of homes in foreclosure sales is not much greater than the national average, said Serdar Bankaci, founder of Default Research, a company that collects real estate date in the Phoenix area.

"If you look at the whole picture, the region had 2.86 percent of residents enter foreclosure, and that is not too far off the national average of just above two percent," he said.

He expects foreclosure rates to start declining in the next few months.

"Arizona and particularly the Phoenix metro region have a strong base for their economy," said Bankaci. "With government spending on tourism, education and construction in the billions, this region will recover and home prices will recover."

High rise goes up, but tenants are scarce

The concrete-and-steel frame of the One Central Park East office high-rise has been rapidly rising near Van Buren and First streets.

Snagging tenants for the 26-story downtown Phoenix building, however, has been slow going, the developer says.

Early lease talks are under way with several prospective tenants for the 485,000-square-foot building, said Andrew Conlin, managing director of Chicago-based Mesirow Financial Real Estate Inc. Those talks represent proposals to rent 800,000 square feet, Conlin added.

While some of those discussions have led to negotiations for letters on intent - a step before an actual lease - no leases have been signed yet, he said. The building is expected to open in September 2009.

"The challenge that has arisen is that the lease market has been impacted by the economy a little bit," Conlin said.

That's because the modern glass tower that Mesirow Financial plans to build is, financially speaking, a time capsule, an expert says.

One Central Park East reflects the commercial real estate market of 18 months ago, when it was possible to get financing for a building that had few or no confirmed tenants, said Donald Mudd, a senior vice president at Grubb & Ellis Co., a commercial real estate consulting firm.

With today's weak economy, those conditions don't exist, he added.

Plus, it costs money to relocate and many prospective tenants are facing tight budgets, Mudd observed.

"A lot of people don't want to make a decision now," Mudd said. "Unless there is a real definite need to relocate, a lot of tenants are renewing (leases) on a short-term basis."

When the tower is complete, One Central Park East will be an "iconic" addition to the Phoenix skyline, Conlin said.

The building will be covered with treated glass panels that block desert heat but aren't as mirror-like as nearby Chase Tower, he said.

The building's corners bend inward and the middle of the building will have a strip of special material that changes colors in sunlight. The parking levels are covered with perforated metal sheets and at night, those floors will cast a white glow, Conlin said.

Early next spring, construction crews will start on a separate parking structure on the northern side of the property, which is bounded by Central Avenue, Van Buren, First and Polk streets. It will add up to 750 parking spaces to the 580 spaces on the lower floor for the office building, Conlin said.

The first 10floors are complete - one floor of retail and nine levels of parking. Crews are now building 16 floors of office space. Passersby will see the building get roughly one floor taller per week, said Tom Dobson, senior manager at Holder Construction Co.

Report: Getting a Loan Tough in 2007



Mortgage lending fell sharply in 2007 because lenders denied nearly one-third of loan applications, according to a report by the Federal Reserve.

Minorities were most affected. The number of mortgage loans made to Hispanic borrowers fell 49 percent and the number to African-American borrowers declined 35 percent between the first half of 2006 and the second half of 2007. The number of loans to white borrowers also declined by 22 percent during the same time period.

Black and Hispanic borrowers were more likely to receive high-rate loans. In the second half of 2007, 29.5 percent of first-lien home-purchase loans to African-Americans and 24.3 percent of such loans made to Hispanics exceeded the high-rate threshold, compared with 9.2 percent for non-Hispanic whites. (The figures exclude government-backed loans.)

The following are the main reasons given for loan denials in 2007, according to Fed researchers. (The analysis excludes investment properties and home-equity loans. The percentages add up to more than 100 percent.)

  • Credit history, 30.25 percent
  • Not enough collateral, 23.4 percent
  • Other, 23.3 percent
  • Debt-to-income ratio, 20.7 percent
  • Credit application incomplete, 14.2 percent
  • Unverifiable information, 8.4 percent
  • Insufficient cash, 3.8 percent
  • Employment history, 2 percent
  • Mortgage insurance denied, 0.2 percent


Source: The Wall Street Journal, Ruth Simon and Tom McGinty (09/12/08)

Lehman racing to find buyer for beleaguered firm

September 11, 2008 - 11:28PM

The Associated Press

NEW YORK - With Lehman Brothers' shares signaling another steep drop on Friday, top executives are racing to put a sale of the beleaguered investment bank in place before it loses further market value and confidence.

Confidence has waned that Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. will emerge from the financial crisis as an independent franchise, and the No. 4 U.S. investment bank is scouring Wall Street for a financial lifeline. Executives worked feverishly in the past 24 hours to find someone willing to buy all or part of the company, bankers and industry executives close to the situation said.

And the scrutiny is expected to grow more intense Friday, with investors placing bets that Lehman's stock will again nosedive. Shares fell 41 cents, or 9.7 percent, to $3.81 in after-hours trading; the stock skidded 41.8 percent to $4.22 during the regular session in New York, and is down more than 94 percent for the year.

That only puts more pressure on Lehman Chief Executive Richard Fuld, who joined the company in 1961 as a college student and now serves as Wall Street's longest-serving CEO. He has tenaciously resisted putting the company up for sale, but finally relented after a free-fall in its stock price and growing doubts about its survival, according to bankers and industry executives. They asked not to be named because they are not authorized to comment publicly.

Bank of America Corp., Japan's Nomura Securities, France's BNP Paribas, Deutsche Bank AG and Britain's Barclay's Plc have been mentioned this week as potential buyers. Goldman Sachs Group Inc., which also was being talked about as a potential buyer, is not interested, according to an industry official who ask not to be named.

Lehman is also in close contact with both the Treasury Department and Federal Reserve about how to proceed.

Government officials, who asked for anonymity because of the sensitivity of the ongoing discussions, said that a number of options were being explored and that no decisions had been reached on how any deal involving Lehman would be structured.

The Fed and the Treasury Department have been working to help resolve Lehman's situation. Fed officials are having conversations with relevant parties and getting updates. It's premature to say what form any final resolution would take.

Any resolution of the Lehman troubles is not expected to involve the use of government money which would set it apart from the billions of dollars that the government put at risk to facilitate the sale of Bear Stearns in March and to rescue mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac this week.

Randy Whitestone, a spokesman for Lehman, declined to comment.

Lehman's losses soared to almost $7 billion in the last two quarters alone, primarily because of wrong-way bets on mortgage securities and other risky investments.

It's not alone. Global banks have lost more than $300 billion since the subprime mortgage crisis spread to the credit markets one year ago. And the International Monetary Fund has suggested total losses globally could hit $1 trillion.

Lehman Brothers hunted for months for a deep-pocketed investor to pump fresh capital into the firm, a move that would help restore confidence and replenish its broken balance sheet. Some analysts said Lehman was asking too high a price, others guessed that potential investors found too much risk on its books in the current environment.

Fuld tried to assuage nervous investors on Wednesday by announcing a plan to sell a 55 percent stake in its prized investment management business and spin off its commercial real estate holdings into a publicly traded company.

He cast a wide net for potential investors, bankers and executives said, including stepping up talks with private equity firms such as Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co. and Bain Capital.

But analysts increased their criticism of Fuld on Thursday for not naming a potential buyer of its investment management unit, which includes Neuberger Berman, and because they said Lehman would need to finance the real estate spinoff itself.

"We believe some type of capital raise or transaction must be consummated quickly to improve confidence in Lehman," said Standard & Poor's financials analyst Matthew Albrecht

Wednesday, September 10, 2008

Fannie, Freddie Takeover Keeps Mortgages Flowing



The federal government's sweeping takeover of mortgage market giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is expected to have positive short-term benefits to the real estate market and opens the door for the industry to shape the restructuring of the companies.

The NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® commended the Treasury Department's decision, which it said will bring much-needed stability and continued liquidity to the nation’s mortgage market.

"This demonstrates that the government is clearly committed to keeping the flow of capital uninterrupted, which is crucial to the housing sector and the economy," NAR President Richard F. Gaylord said in a statement Monday.

Fannie and Freddie own or guarantee almost half of the country's $12 trillion in outstanding home mortgage debt.

"Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac play a vital role in the U.S. economy by making fair and affordable mortgage loans available for home buyers and owners," Gaylord said. "Their critical mission must not be interrupted, and Sunday’s announcement goes a long way in making sure that does not happen."

What the Plan Involves

Under the Treasury Department's action, the two government-sponsored enterprises are placed in a government conservatorship and overseen by two government-appointed chiefs, former Merrill Lynch vice chairman Herbert Allison at Fannie Mae and former U.S. Bancorp CFO David Moffett at Freddie Mac.

Daniel Mudd, who led Fannie Mae for the last few years, and Richard Syron, his counterpart at Freddie Mac, have been relieved of their jobs.

The federal government is taking up to an 80 percent stake in the companies and will review their financial condition on a quarterly basis, injecting money into their operations as needed. The government is directing the companies to help stabilize housing markets by requiring them to increase their mortgage funding over the next year and a half.

For the long-term, the companies and their regulator, the Federal Housing Finance Agency, will begin planning for a major reorganization of their operations, away from their current 100-percent, privately owned model.

According to news reports, one of the models being discussed is something akin to a public utility, in which the government sets limits on the amount of annual return on equity to shareholders.

Positive Real Estate Impact

For the real estate industry, the short term impact is expected to be positive, says NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. With the government now explicitly backing the companies' mortgage obligations, the market for the GSE securities will be treated more like Treasurys, thereby exerting downward pressure on rates, he says.

That will help drive a positive cycle of investment as investors return to the market, further lowering rates and generating funds to lenders to expand their mortgage loan operations. That is expected to help speed up housing sales in markets across the country and help stabilize home prices.

The main down side to the federal intervention will be felt by the companies' current shareholders, who will no longer receive dividend payments and whose holdings are diluted by the equity stake of the federal government.

Looking ahead, the directive for the companies and their regulator to start work on their long-term restructuring opens the door for NAR to help shape that process, and the association already has a process underway to do that, say NAR legislative and regulatory affairs analysts.

— REALTOR® Magazine Online

Mortgage deal not a cure-all

Home buyers, not ailing borrowers, benefit

by J.W. Elphinstone - Sept. 8, 2008 12:00 AM
Associated Press

NEW YORK - The government's historic bailout of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac on Sunday will be good news to home buyers and some homeowners hoping to refinance if it leads to lower mortgage rates, as experts expect.

But for homeowners already behind on their mortgage payments, or who owe more than their homes are now worth, the plan unveiled Sunday by Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson offers little in the way of extra relief.

"The bailout will give the mortgage industry a stability that we haven't had in a couple of years," said Rich Cosner, president of Prudential California Realty. "But frankly, no, it won't help (struggling borrowers) to refinance."

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac play a critical and increasingly dominant role in the mortgage market. The companies buy mortgage loans from banks and package those loans into securities that they either hold or sell to U.S. and foreign investors. That allows traditional lenders like Bank of America, Wells Fargo and Washington Mutual to make more loans.

Together, Fannie and Freddie own or guarantee about $5 trillion in home loans, about half of the nation's total.

But an alarming number of those loans started going into default, draining the companies' financial reserves and sending a chill through credit markets worldwide. As investors grew more skittish, borrowing costs started rising.

By placing Fannie and Freddie into a conservatorship, the government is promising investors that the companies' debt is as safe as the Treasury Department's.

While not a cure-all, the bailout is still a step in the right direction, industry observers say.

It will at least "keep the lanes in the mortgage freeway open," possibly putting the market on the road to recovery, said Greg McBride, a senior financial analyst at Bankrate.com.

If mortgage rates fall, that will attract more potential buyers into the market, which, in turn, will help to prop up home prices, he said.

He expects mortgage rates on a conventional, 30-year fixed-rate home loan to fall over the next few weeks as the dust settles on the bailout. Rates, which now average 6.35 percent, could fall as much as half of a percentage point, he said. But he doesn't see a quick turnaround for housing in the United States.

"We're not looking at sunshine and daffodils in the housing market anytime soon," he said.

Government officials declined to speculate on how much mortgage rates would be affected but said they hoped government control would allow the companies to focus on their mission of supporting the housing market.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency, the new agency created by Congress this summer to regulate Fannie and Freddie, is planning to work with the companies on existing loan-modification efforts and report on their results in the coming months.

Most mortgage brokers expect Fannie and Freddie's lending standards to remain unchanged under the conservatorship.

Over the past several months, the companies have tightened requirements substantially, making it hard for borrowers with any blemish on their credit reports to qualify for a loan.

However, brokers hope the government will eliminate or reduce fees that the pair have been charging lenders to gird against increased credit risk and losses from mortgages they buy.

Those rising fees are squeezing out some borrowers because lenders typically pass them along through higher mortgage rates or higher upfront costs.

"That was not providing affordable financing. If fees were eliminated, we would see more qualified borrowers being able to refinance or qualify for a mortgage," said Marc Savitt, president of the National Association of Mortgage Brokers.

Getting more buyers into the market is key to a turnaround. And a stabilized housing market with some price gains would help homeowners struggling with their mortgage payments.

But such a market is at least a year away, Cosner said.

"That will help them," he said, "if they can hold out that long."

200 foreclosed properties scheduled for auction

September 5, 2008 - 2:20PM

Edward Gately, Tribune

Hudson & Marshall, one of the country's largest real estate auction firms, will auction nearly 200 foreclosures at 11 a.m. on Sept. 13 at the Camelback Inn in Paradise Valley.

Owned by national lenders, each home comes with an insurable title paid for by the sellers, and contracts generally close in 30 days or less. Winning bidders will be required to make a $5,000 deposit in the form of cash, cashier's check or certified funds for each property they plan to bid on.

Buyers are encouraged to inspect homes. An open house is scheduled from 1 p.m. to 3 p.m. today and Sunday. For properties, visit www.hudsonandmarshall.com or call (866) 539-4172.

Down-payment help ending

The Oct. 1 elimination of seller-paid down-payment assistance may be temporarily accelerating home buyers to purchase properties before the assistance goes away, according to RE/MAX Elite.

August existing home sales for the Valley were down 1.9 percent from July, to 5,834 sales, but up 35.6 percent from the same month in 2007. The urgency is exacerbated by numerous lenders that are implementing terminations on the seller-paid down-payment assistance programs. The likely impact after October is unclear but could be significant given the prevalence of Federal Housing Administration loans in the Valley, according to RE/MAX Elite.

Trillium announces apartment project

Tempe-based Trillium Residential has announced the opening of the Valley's largest multifamily community in two decades.

Trillium Pinnacle Peak, a 724-unit apartment community, is located at 24250 N. 23rd Ave., Phoenix.

Trillium Residential expects high demand because the area is home to 44,500 jobs. Nearby major employers include Honeywell, American Express, USAA Insurance, the headquarters for PetSmart and Best Western, and John C. Lincoln Hospital.

Shea model homes for sale

Shea Homes Arizona has announced that 25 of its model homes are up for immediate sale.

In the East Valley, homes are located in:

Tuscano at Seville, Bellamonte at Seville, Enclaves at Seville and Sorrento at Seville, all on Riggs Road between Higley and Power roads in Gilbert.

Silverado at San Tan Heights and Cimarron at San Tan Heights, on Hunt Highway at Village Lane in Queen Creek.

200 foreclosed properties scheduled for auction

September 5, 2008 - 2:20PM

Edward Gately, Tribune

Hudson & Marshall, one of the country's largest real estate auction firms, will auction nearly 200 foreclosures at 11 a.m. on Sept. 13 at the Camelback Inn in Paradise Valley.

Owned by national lenders, each home comes with an insurable title paid for by the sellers, and contracts generally close in 30 days or less. Winning bidders will be required to make a $5,000 deposit in the form of cash, cashier's check or certified funds for each property they plan to bid on.

Buyers are encouraged to inspect homes. An open house is scheduled from 1 p.m. to 3 p.m. today and Sunday. For properties, visit www.hudsonandmarshall.com or call (866) 539-4172.

Down-payment help ending

The Oct. 1 elimination of seller-paid down-payment assistance may be temporarily accelerating home buyers to purchase properties before the assistance goes away, according to RE/MAX Elite.

August existing home sales for the Valley were down 1.9 percent from July, to 5,834 sales, but up 35.6 percent from the same month in 2007. The urgency is exacerbated by numerous lenders that are implementing terminations on the seller-paid down-payment assistance programs. The likely impact after October is unclear but could be significant given the prevalence of Federal Housing Administration loans in the Valley, according to RE/MAX Elite.

Trillium announces apartment project

Tempe-based Trillium Residential has announced the opening of the Valley's largest multifamily community in two decades.

Trillium Pinnacle Peak, a 724-unit apartment community, is located at 24250 N. 23rd Ave., Phoenix.

Trillium Residential expects high demand because the area is home to 44,500 jobs. Nearby major employers include Honeywell, American Express, USAA Insurance, the headquarters for PetSmart and Best Western, and John C. Lincoln Hospital.

Shea model homes for sale

Shea Homes Arizona has announced that 25 of its model homes are up for immediate sale.

In the East Valley, homes are located in:

Tuscano at Seville, Bellamonte at Seville, Enclaves at Seville and Sorrento at Seville, all on Riggs Road between Higley and Power roads in Gilbert.

Silverado at San Tan Heights and Cimarron at San Tan Heights, on Hunt Highway at Village Lane in Queen Creek.

Government creates a rescue plan for troubled Fannie, Freddie

Sept. 6, 2008 12:00 AM
Washington Post

WASHINGTON - The government has formulated a plan to put troubled mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac under federal control, prop them up financially and dismiss their top executives, federal officials told the two companies Friday, according to three sources familiar with the conversations.

Under the plan, which could prompt one of the most sweeping government interventions in the workings of financial markets in U.S. history, federal officials would place the firms under a conservatorship, a legal status giving the government the option and time to restructure and revive the companies, the sources said. The value of the companies' common stock would be diluted but not wiped out, while the holdings of other securities, including company debt and preferred shares, might be protected by the government.

Instead of giving each company a big capital infusion up front, the government could make quarterly injections as the companies' losses warrant, the sources said. This would be an attempt to minimize the initial cost of the rescue.

The timing of government action remained unclear Friday night, and the final details were still under discussion. But as the pace of discussions accelerated, Treasury officials contacted senior congressional leaders Friday, telling them they might be briefed on the plan this weekend and asking for telephone numbers where they could be reached.

The action would represent a major escalation of the government's role in private lending. The government would be assuming vast obligations it has historically disavowed, potentially using taxpayer money to make up for private business decisions gone wrong.

In an effort to contain the most profound financial crisis in generations, Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr., leaders of the Federal Reserve and other government officials have in recent months upended decades of precedent. A bailout of the two mortgage finance titans would follow a Fed rescue of investment bank Bear Stearns in March and earlier steps to provide implicit government backing to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Fannie and Freddie have backed 70 percent of new mortgages in recent months, but both have incurred vast losses on their loan portfolios as the housing market has tanked. Paulson, the architect of the plan, and other government leaders view the mortgage firms as vital to preventing an even broader financial crisis and economic downturn.

Calling in the executives

The chief executives of the two companies were called into afternoon meetings Friday at the 17th Street NW offices of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, their direct regulator, sources familiar with the events said.

Executives of the two companies were told to show up without being told of an agenda. Daniel H. Mudd, chief executive of Fannie Mae, was accompanied by lawyers from Sullivan and Cromwell, the company's outside counsel. He arrived at 3 p.m. for a two-hour meeting. Richard F. Syron, chief executive of Freddie Mac, began his meeting at around 5 p.m., accompanied by several members of the Freddie Mac board and lawyers from Covington and Burling.

Paulson, Fed chairman Ben Bernanke and James Lockhart, the director of the housing finance regulator, told the executives of the plan, which would strip them of their jobs but not include any broader management shake-up.

The plan was described by three sources, who include an official, a former official who was told of the plans and a mortgage industry executive with direct information. They spoke on condition of anonymity because its specifics had yet to be announced.

If the plan is enacted, it would bring under direct government control two companies that have a long and complicated history as hybrid public and private entities.

Markets 'seek closure'

In July, with the companies reeling from losses and as fears grew that they wouldn't be able to raise cash privately, Paulson gained the power to invest federal money in Fannie and Freddie through loans or buying their stock if he concludes it is necessary. In so doing, Congress gave him power to invest an unlimited sum.

Although the companies' shares initially soared on that news, their financial positions have worsened in recent weeks, along with their ability to raise money on the markets.

"It's clear the market wants some closure on this. Any sort of plan that would get the market at ease would be preferred to what we have right now," said Mario De Rose, chief fixed-income strategist at Edward Jones, a brokerage firm based in St. Louis.

In recent weeks, investors less willing to take risks on debt issued by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have demanded higher payments, which has increased costs for consumers taking out mortgage loans.

Investor uncertainty over the long-term fate of the companies has left a pall over credit markets. It has been unclear which investors, if any, would suffer should the government intervene to prop up the firms.

The answer, in Paulson's plan, is that holders of preferred shares and subordinated debt, a riskier but higher-paying class of debt, might be made whole. Government leaders were reluctant to allow holders of those assets to incur major losses because they are widely held by banks, and major losses could cause a wave of bank failures.

Placing the companies in conservatorship, rather than receivership, could signal that the government does not intend to nationalize or liquidate Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Instead, under the terms of a federal law passed this summer, conservatorship is designed to allow the government to restructure the companies and return them to private control. Treasury officials previously compared the process to Chapter 11 bankruptcy.

Plan's ideal result

If the government plan succeeds, uncertainty in the markets around Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac could subside, making it easier for the companies to get access to funding at cheaper rates. That, in turn, could have a spillover effect in the overall market for mortgages, lowering interest rates and helping the battered housing market recover.

The move may calm some Asian markets, where central banks and other financial institutions have become among the largest investors in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and therefore one of the largest sources of mortgage finance in the United States.

Uncertainty over whether and how Treasury would intervene has caused some major investors to reduce their holdings of the agencies' debt, analysts say. That threatened to make it more costly for the companies to get financing, increasing mortgage rates and delaying the housing recovery.

Victor Wang, a banking researcher at UBS Securities Asia, said that Chinese banks, the largest foreign holder of agency debt, did not know how to read the possibility of a Treasury intervention.

"Very few have full confidence of that," he said. "It's a 'may.' And 'may' means uncertainty. That's something banks don't like."

And They Could Call It Frannie



There is talk on Wall Street and within Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac about the government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) merging, says an article in the Wall Street Journal, although most observers do not expect such a move.

However, eliminating redundancies would reduce operating costs by $1.2 billion per year, which would generate upwards of $19 billion in value, experts say. Meanwhile, increased leverage and buying power would shave approximately $300 million per year off foreclosure costs.
According to Leader Capital CEO John Lekas: "The market will know that both entities combined will have much more consistent, stable margins."

Still, Congress would be hesitant to approve a deal that would result in massive layoffs; and lawmakers would have to rewrite legislation that created the GSEs and deal with concerns about a monopoly.

Source: New York Times, Andrew Ross Sorkin (09/02/08)

High-end houses will be auctioned

by J. Craig Anderson and Rebekah L. Sanders - Sept. 4, 2008 12:00 AM
The Arizona Republic

Beverly Hills-based auctioneer Kennedy Wilson Auction Group plans to auction off 30 model homes in a number of Valley communities this month, promising luxury living at 50 cents on the dollar.

The Trend Homes-built models up for auction include six at the Lakes at Annecy and seven at Marque at Cooley Station, both in Gilbert. Another nine model homes are located at Tartesso in Buckeye, and eight more at Cortessa in Waddell, near Surprise.

Kennedy Wilson said each home is fully finished and landscaped as is the custom with high-end model homes.

The auction is scheduled for 1 p.m. Sept. 14 at the Hyatt Regency Scottsdale Resort and Spa at Gainey Ranch, with minimum bids starting at $90,000.

Unlike "reserve" auctions, in which a seller may refuse the highest bid, Kennedy Wilson President Rhett Winchell said all winning bids at or above the minimum would result in a sale.

Kennedy Wilson also will host two free seminars for first-time bidders a week prior to the auction.

Gilbert home builder Trend Homes, filed for Chapter 11 reorganization in January and was purchased by Najafi Cos. in June. Last month, a Valley land bank that bought and sold lots for Trend also filed for bankruptcy protection.

Friday, September 5, 2008

Is the Worst Over? Analysts Have Mixed Views


Some analysts reacting to the news that home sales rose a healthy 3.1 percent in July compared to June say the increase predicts further improvement. Others are more pessimistic.

"We are not yet ready to call the current levels a bottom but clearly most of the declines are behind us," says Adam York, a Wachovia Corp. economist.

"The good news is the trough is behind us," says Harm Bandholz, a New York-based economist with UniCredit, but Bandholz warns that tighter lending standards and rising foreclosures will continue to put pressure on housing prices.

Real estate consultant John Burns, who advises large builders and investment firms, says he thinks supply and demand will remain out of whack until there is a 46 percent decline in the inventory of homes on the resale market.

Burns, who is president of John Burns Real Estate Consulting, estimates that by 2010 the most stable markets will reach equilibrium and by 2011, the national market will move into better balance. Overall, he believes that it will take until 2014 for it to be business as usual.

Sources: The Wall Street Journal, Kelly Evans (08/26/2008) and Business Week, Amy Feldman (08/18/2008)

Tolleson, Litchfield Park have highest foreclosure increase

by Grayson Steinberg - Aug. 25, 2008 12:00 AM
The Arizona Republic

Among Maricopa County cities, Tolleson led with the largest percentage increase in foreclosures and pre-foreclosures during the first half of this year compared with the same period in 2007.

Foreclosures in Tolleson were more than 600 percent higher while more than 300 percent more foreclosure notices were handed out. There were 352 foreclosures in Tolleson from January through June, compared with 46 for the same time last year.

After Tolleson, Litchfield Park had the next-highest percentage increase in foreclosures, and Queen Creek had the second-highest percentage increase in foreclosure notices.

In sheer numbers, Phoenix had the most foreclosures in the first half of this year, with 5,872, compared with 926 for the same months in 2007.