Sunday, October 19, 2008

Reincarnated Trend Homes finds its way

by J. Craig Anderson - Oct. 10, 2008 12:00 AM
The Arizona Republic

This year has been a difficult one for Trend Homes, but in some ways the Chandler-based home builder has been fortunate.

It was on the brink of insolvency in January when private equity firm Najafi Cos. agreed to purchase the bulk of its assets through a Chapter 11 bankruptcy proceeding.

Now, the second incarnation of Trend Homes, or as company CEO Reed Porter calls it, "T2," is trying to pick up where its failed predecessor left off.

Porter spoke with The Arizona Republic recently about the company's recent troubles and where things stand today.

Question: How is the company's health now compared with a year ago?

Answer: First of all, it is a new company. The Najafi Cos. formed a new legal entity. They acquired assets of the old company through the bankruptcy, including homes, lots, computers and other equipment. They also purchased the names Trend Homes and Classic Communities and hired all the (50) old employees, too. But it is a brand-new company that doesn't have any of the old issues.

Q: What led Trend Homes to file for bankruptcy protection in January?

A: It was kind of what would be known as a prepackaged bankruptcy. The deal was heavily negotiated with the creditors. Najafi wanted to buy the company's assets, but those assets had decreased substantially because of the housing market. They were no longer worth as much as the debt. So the old Trend Homes sold almost all of its assets to Najafi through what's known as a 363 sale, which can only happen through Chapter 11 reorganization. It's a complex process that allowed Najafi to purchase assets and assume some of the debt. The old (company) is still in Chapter 11.

Q: What's the relationship like with Najafi, and what role does Trend's new owner play in day-to-day operations?

A: We now have new credit that allows the company a fresh start to go ahead and continue to do business, and we can offer homes at today's market price. We're no longer hanging around with a bunch of overpriced assets. Our new home prices are competitive with foreclosures and short sales, and we're ready to go. Trend's six communities completed construction on all the unfinished homes this summer. We're eager to get some new homes sold in those communities.

Q: Several weeks ago, the company was trying to reach an agreement with its former land bank, Taro Properties Arizona, to buy nearly 500 vacant lots inside the partially built Cooley Station North subdivision in Gilbert that were going into foreclosure. What was the outcome of those talks?

A: When Taro filed for bankruptcy (in August), that stayed the foreclosure. We're still trying to put a deal together to buy those lots, but there's no plan at all. Certainly we have an interest in continuing to build homes there. The new Trend Homes will continue to build homes in six of the old Trend's seven communities, but Cooley Station North is being treated differently because it has a different bank. For whatever reason, they didn't like the terms that the other bank liked.

Q: Even though you don't have any plans to continue building homes inside Cooley Station North, you are still the sole member of its homeowners association board of directors. Are you planning to step down from that position?

A: That's being worked out through the Taro bankruptcy. The new Trend Homes doesn't have any assets in Cooley Station North, but Taro owns 65 percent of the property. The last thing (Taro) wants is for the property to decrease in value. They've got $30 million worth of land that they're trying to protect. The management company is still operating, but everyone's doing all they can to cut costs and services during these difficult times. It's a challenge everywhere. Every single partially built community is having trouble with the HOA.

 

Housing Inventory Tightens in September


The number of homes for sale in the 28 markets tracked by online real estate company ZipRealty fell 1.6 percent in September.

Overall, the September inventory is down 7 percent from a year ago in the Zip Realty-tracked metro markets. Zip's accounting includes only homes listed in multiple-listing services and many foreclosed homes aren’t included in those databases.

Barclays Capital estimates there are 811,000 bank-owned homes in the U.S., up from 129,000 two years ago, and predicts that the total will rise 60 percent before peaking late next year.

Source: The Wall Street Journal, James R. Hagerty (10/09/2008)

Businesses hope a new era arrives with rumble of light rail

by Chad Graham - Oct. 9, 2008 12:00 AM
The Arizona Republic

Light rail is giving Central Avenue a chance to become Phoenix's premier boulevard.

The avenue's 3-mile stretch from just south of McDowell Road to Camelback Road is a jumble of disconnected identities. High-rise office towers back up to historic neighborhoods. A world-renowned art museum sits across the street from a CVS pharmacy.

It is the address for the Heard Museum and Phoenix Public Library's main branch, two of the most architecturally significant buildings in the Valley. Yet there are acres of empty lots, as well, many in decades-old holding patterns as past excitement and blueprints faded.

"The light rail provides that avenue to put together the final pieces," said Phoenix City Councilman Tom Simplot, who represents part of the Central Avenue corridor and is chairman of Metro light rail's board of directors. "We will have a live, work, play environment."

Promising future

Although it still might be a decade away, a more vibrant Central Avenue could mean more residents living and working in the area. It could mean well-heeled professionals and First Friday artists shopping at boutique stores and frequenting independent coffeehouses and unique restaurants.

Central Avenue could become the place where suburbanites grab a drink or dinner and then take light rail to a sporting event or concert downtown. It could become a destination street like Mill Avenue in Tempe.

"(It) could be a very walkable, shoppable street as far down as you want to go," said Brad Plumley, co-owner of Haus Modern Living. "There's a lot of empty space."

His business, which sells items from $4.50 luggage tags to $15,000 Italian sofas, moved this summer from Biltmore Fashion Park to near a Central Avenue light-rail stop.

"Ideally, Central would be more cosmopolitan with more locally owned businesses opening up and selling their products," he said, adding that he would like to see the area be known as the antidote to the big-box chain stores common elsewhere in the Valley.

Economic pain

Until the late 1980s, Central Avenue was a center for corporate headquarters and ritzy living, but the artery dimmed after the recession of the early 1990s.

The street's image began to re-emerge in recent years with the development of luxury condominiums - with everything from sleek and modern designs to stately Victorian row houses.

With light rail coming, the avenue readied for its largest building boom in more than a quarter-century, but the real-estate bubble burst before much of the construction began. Developers again abandoned or delayed projects.

It may take a decade after light rail opens to spur such wide-scale development again, Simplot said.

"Until we get a track record of sustainable ridership, I don't think we're going to see the developers finding the financing to be able to build in the short term," he said. "We know that there is a lot of excitement from the development community about the potential and possibilities. Once the financing comes back into Arizona, we know . . . there will be building that will be going on: more apartments, more condos, retail, commercial, office space."

Luxury living delayed

David Pourbaba, CEO and founder of 4D Development & Investment in Los Angeles, still hopes his luxury-condominium project will be built.

Cielo Phoenix, a 36-story building of 500 condominiums with units initially priced from $300,000 to $2 million, has been delayed until at least next year. It was to have been the new home to Arizona Cardinals quarterback Matt Leinart.

"Right now, the market is just not there," Pourbaba said. "The capital market is going to get worse through the end of the year, but we expect it to get better in the second quarter of 2009."

Still, he has faith that light rail will draw new residents to the area after the economy recovers and that they will want a nice place to live.

"At the end of the day, Phoenix is too big of an area, and the driving just makes people tired," he said. "I think there will be some conservation, people will want to be closer, and the only way to do that will be to go vertical."

Hip and cool already

What might Central Avenue look like in 10 years? Some signs of urban hip are already in place, and others are on the way.

One corner to watch is Central Avenue and Camelback Road, which already has boutiques like Frances Vintage and Halo Precision Piercing.

Postino Winecafe, an eatery in the Arcadia neighborhood, will open a second location, Postino Central, at the former home of Katz's Deli on Central Avenue. It is set to open by January. Highly anticipated restaurants Cyclo and St. Francis Place are set to open nearby.

At the corner of the two major streets, a residential and hotel project has started moving through the city-planning process. Light rail will go behind the property diagonally, making it one of the easiest places to get to.

Construction woes

Down the street, near Steele Indian School Park, there is Lux Coffee, a hip hangout with minimal decor and works by local artists. The coffee bar remained busy through the construction that devastated other businesses, but it is ready for that messy chapter to be finished.

Jeff and Tara Fischer bought the coffeehouse in October 2005. Light-rail construction began in early 2006.

Jeff remembers the time the restaurant's water was cut off and it couldn't serve coffee. Construction limited patrons' access into the parking lot.

"The construction was out of our control, so we focused on things that we could control," he said. "We shifted away from being predicated on volume and more predicated on having a really quality experience for everyone that came in."

They tried to provide the best individualized service possible, in part by memorizing customers' names and usual orders.

When Jeff Fischer looks at Central Avenue now, he still sees a lot of the empty lots left by the mortgage fallout.

"I hope the light rail fills in some of those voids," Jeff said.

 

Wednesday, October 8, 2008

Treasury Rushes To Set Up Rescue Program


The Treasury Department plans to hire five to 10 asset management firms that will set up a process to buy up to $700 billion of distressed mortgages and mortgage-related assets from financial firms.

One firm will be selected by Friday to provide custodial services such as tracking cash and assets. The asset management firms will be named next week.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has said the government won't pay "fire sale" prices for the distressed assets, which would be less likely to achieve the bailout plan's objective of bolstering the financial sector.

Only companies with $100 billion in bonds and other fixed-income assets under management are eligible to apply to be asset managers, the department said, though future contracts will be opened to small businesses. Among those expected to bid are: Legg Mason Inc., Blackrock Inc. and bond manager Pacific Investment Management Co., or PIMCO.

Some anaylsts are concerned that the short timetable will result in the government overpaying for services. "We can't criticize them for rushing when we're telling them it's an emergency," said Steven Schooner, a law professor at George Washington University, but "there's no question when you rush, the contracts tend to be less well-drafted ... and lead to less disciplined cost control."

Source: The Associated Press, Christopher S. Rugaber (10/07/08)

Pending Home Sales Up Sharply


Pending home sales activity surged as buyers took advantage of low home prices and affordable interest rates, according to the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF
REALTORS®.

The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in August, jumped 7.4 percent to 93.4 from an upwardly revised reading of 87.0 in July, and is 8.8 percent higher than August 2007 when it stood at 85.8. The index is at the highest level since June 2007 when it stood at 101.4.

Improved Affordability

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says home buyers were responding to improved affordability. “What we’re seeing is the momentum of people taking advantage of low home prices, with pending home sales up strongly in California, Nevada, Arizona, Florida, Rhode Island, and the Washington, D.C., region,” he says.

“The improvement also reflects the drop in mortgage interest rates after the government takeover of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. It’s unclear how much contract activity may be impacted by the credit disruptions on Wall Street, but we’re hopeful most of the increase will translate into closed existing-home sales", adds Yun.

The PHSI in the West surged 18.4 percent to 109.5 in August and remains 37.8 percent above a year ago. In the Northeast the index jumped 8.4 percent to 79.8 and is 2.0 percent higher than August 2007. The index in the Midwest rose 3.6 percent to 84.5 in August and is 6.6 percent above a year ago. In the South, the index increased 2.3 percent to 96.0 but is 2.1 percent below August 2007.

Yun notes the unusual timing of contract activity in August. “Home buyers in July were hampered by overly stringent lending criteria in the months before the government takeover of Fannie and Freddie,” he said. “August shows some unleashing of pent-up demand before the credit crisis accelerated in September.”

He cautioned that the sampling size for pending home sales is smaller than the track on existing-home sales, so there is more volatility in the forward-looking series. “We need to see just how much of this gain holds up,” Yun adds.

NAR President Richard F. Gaylord says despite all the turmoil in world financial markets, home mortgages are available. “The recently enacted economic stimulus package should help housing by gradually freeing the flow of credit," he says.

Yun now expects growth in the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) to contract for two consecutive quarters, in the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of 2009, before expanding in latter part of 2009 as the housing market begins a steady improvement.

Existing-home sales projected to rise next year

Looking at middle-ground assumptions, existing-home sales are forecast at 5.04 million this year and 5.41 million in 2009. Following national declines of 5 to 8 percent in 2008, home prices are projected to increase 2 to 3 percent next year.

New-home sales should total around 503,000 this year and 471,000 in 2009. Housing starts, including multifamily units, are likely to fall 28.2 percent to 973,000 units this year, and come in around 843,000 in 2009 as builders continue to clear the accumulation in inventory.

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage will probably average 6.1 percent in the fourth quarter and rise gradually to 6.6 percent by the end of 2009. NAR’s housing affordability index is expected to average 18 percentage points higher this year than in 2007.

The unemployment rate is projected to average 6.4 percent in the fourth quarter and then average 6.6 percent in 2009. Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, is estimated at 4.0 percent for 2008 and 2.0 percent next year. Inflation-adjusted disposable personal income is forecast to grow 1.7 percent this year and 1.0 percent in 2009.

NAR

Good news in market gone bad

Oct. 8, 2008 12:00 AM

Foreclosures and pre-foreclosures were up across metropolitan Phoenix in September. It's the expected bad news in the midst of the financial- and housing-market meltdowns.

But home sales were up across the Valley last month, an unexpected piece of good news.

According to Realtor Mike Orr's analysis of Arizona Multiple Listing Service data, 6,136 homes were sold in September, the highest monthly level since August 2006.

Orr said the higher sales volume is due to more homes being resold after lenders foreclose on them and an expected rush by some first-timers to buy before down-payment-assistance programs go away.

There are more foreclosure homes for buyers to choose from. In September, foreclosures, or trustee sales, in Maricopa County hit a new high of 4,378, according to the Information Market. That's a 10 percent increase in one month.

Pre-foreclosures, or notices of trustee sales, also hit a new high. Last month, lenders moved to foreclose on 7,447 Valley homes.

Tom Ruff, a real-estate analyst with Information Market, said currently about two out of every three pre-foreclosures end up in foreclosure. More than 95 percent of all foreclosures go back to the lender.

Valley homes foreclosed on and resold by banks accounted for as much as 50 percent of all resales in September.

Buyers are finding bargains in the foreclosure-resale market, which continues to pull down the area's overall median home price. Information Market tracked a median price of $175,000 for the Valley's resale market in September. The median price for foreclosure resales was about $150,000.

Some real-estate analysts say the housing market was the first economic sector to fall and will be the first to recover. It's nothing new in Arizona for real estate to lead the economy into a recession - and to lead it out.

Orr said the upswing in home sales continued during the first week of October.

 

Countrywide loans to be modified

13,000 mortgage holders in Ariz. eligible for program

by J. Craig Anderson - Oct. 7, 2008 12:00 AM
The Arizona Republic

Thousands of former Countrywide Financial customers on the brink of foreclosure will be eligible for lower mortgage payments in the coming months, thanks to a settlement agreement.

Borrowers with subprime and other adjustable-rate loans will be eligible for significant loan modifications beginning in December, Arizona Attorney General Terry Goddard's office said Monday.

The deal requires Bank of America to modify the loans of struggling borrowers to make their monthly payments more affordable, and it places a temporary hold on any bank action to take their homes.

About 13,000 Arizona mortgage holders are eligible for loan modifications under the agreement, said Susan Segal, Goddard's public-advocacy division chief.

The modifications would be based on what each borrower can afford, Segal said, and most borrowers would end up with fixed-rate loans. Some also would get a reduction in the loan's principal, she said.

In cases where foreclosure already has occurred or cannot be prevented, Segal said the borrowers would be eligible for relocation assistance from Bank of America.

A group of five state attorneys general and Bank of America, Countrywide's new corporate parent, signed the agreement Friday.

In exchange, the group of attorneys general representing Arizona, Texas, Ohio, Iowa and Washington state, agreed not to pursue any legal action against the former Countrywide based on its "alleged use of deceptive practices in their mortgage-lending business."

"There is no admission of guilt," Segal said about the agreement.

Still, it could take weeks or months for every eligible borrower to get a loan modification, she said.

Countrywide is supposed to launch the program Dec. 1 but has said it will need about 60 days to prepare.

Segal said the bank has committed to a staff of 3,200 loss-mitigation specialists to provide service to all of the affected customers nationwide.

Six other states, including California, have worked out their own loan-modification deals with Countrywide, formerly the nation's No. 1 subprime lender and overall largest mortgage lender, in exchange for dropping consumer-protection lawsuits.

Segal said similar deals with other subprime and "alternative" mortgage lenders should be forthcoming.

 

Chandler a bright spot in office real estate

October 6, 2008 - 6:16PM

Edward Gately, Tribune

Chandler's office market this year has outperformed all other submarkets across the Valley, according to CB Richard Ellis' third-quarter analysis of office, industrial and retail real estate.

"I just continue to be surprised at how well the south East Valley (office market) has performed compared to the rest of the market during this slow time," said Jerry Noble, first vice president at the real estate services company. "And Chandler is the strongest market Phoenix has right now, and it's due to smart product being built along the freeways that offer tenants what they need today."

Valleywide, the office vacancy rate increased for the fourth consecutive quarter, rising nearly a full percentage point to end the third quarter at 17.1 percent. This is more than four percentage points higher than at the same time last year.

Net occupancy rebounded in the third quarter with a positive 65,656 square feet but remains at negative 54,778 square feet for the year. At its current pace, occupancy of office space in 2008 will be the lowest since 2002, when only 707,097 square feet was absorbed.

"The biggest problem we have right now is vacancies will continue to go up this year just simply due to the supply that ... was under construction well before our markets changed," Noble said. "All things considered, the East Valley posted plus (occupancy)."

As for industrial space, new occupancy still lags well behind the previous year's figures and is predicted to be the lowest since 2001, when the market occupied only 2.8 million square feet.

Vacancy has increased slightly from 11.12 percent in the second quarter to 11.5 percent in the third quarter and risen only 4.4 percent since the third quarter of 2007.

"If there's one shining area in the south East Valley, in spite of the vacancies that have gone up here from second to third quarter ... a couple of industries are actually looking and expanding," said Pete Wentis, senior vice president in the industrial division of CB Richard Ellis. "Biotech is one, and we're certainly seeing a strong, strong influx of solar-related companies looking and talking, and negotiating on land or buildings."

Speculative industrial space continued to decline in the third quarter, ending with only 4.3 million square feet under construction. One year ago there was 10.1 million square feet of speculative product under construction.

For the sixth consecutive quarter, the retail vacancy rate has ticked upward, from 6.53 percent at the end of the second quarter to 6.9 percent at the end of the third quarter.

Only 917,608 square feet of new retail product was delivered to the market in the third quarter, marking the first time since the second quarter of 2007 that completions dipped below one million square feet.

Uncertainty in the economy continues to erode consumer spending, which further delays tenant activity and the development of new retail projects, according to the report.

 

Firm may add hundreds of Chandler jobs

by Luci Scott - Oct. 7, 2008 12:00 AM
The Arizona Republic

Space-technology company Orbital Sciences Corp. plans a big expansion across the street from its facility on Price Road in south Chandler, which is expected to bring hundreds more well-paying jobs to the area.

The company will occupy the first office building to be built in a new 74-acre mixed-use project, the Waters at Ocotillo.

Orbital has 1,000 employees in its Price Road building near Dobson Road south of Queen Creek Road and 300 workers in leased space. It also has 150 on-site contractors. The new building will house 330 workers, some moved from current sites.

The first office building will have 82,000 square feet. Ultimately, the expansion will comprise up to 232,000 square feet in three new buildings. The two campuses will cover 600,000 square feet with room for nearly 2,200 employees, nearly double the existing work- force.

"We're going to break ground probably late this month, with occupancy about a year later," Orbital spokesman Barron Beneski said.

"Our current thinking is that in a few years' time . . . we will need these facilities to support our business," he said.

The first new building will house mechanical, electrical, software and system engineers as well as program managers.

The salaries generally run more than $70,000, said Chris Mackay, Chandler's acting director of economic development.

The company also is signing an 11-year lease in its current building and is planning a 13,000-square-foot expansion and facility upgrades at that site.

Orbital develops and manufactures small- and medium-class rockets and space systems for commercial, military and civil government customers. Its primary products are satellites and launch vehicles.

Orbital's expansion is being fueled by the continued strong demand for the company's launch-vehicle products. They are used primarily by the U.S. government to deploy and test missile defense systems and to launch scientific and national-security satellites.

Orbital is also developing a new rocket, Taurus II, which will be capable of carrying cargo to the International Space Station and boosting commercial satellites into orbit.

Mackay said, "The exciting thing . . . is that we have an office building coming out of the ground 100 percent occupied in this market where office vacancy rates are getting a little higher."

The office vacancy rate in metro Phoenix is over 18 percent, and in Chandler, 12 percent.

Orbital is headquartered in Dulles, Va., where the company is also expanding.

It first established a presence in Chandler 20 years ago when the company acquired a small company, Space Data.

 

Tuesday, October 7, 2008

Stocks tumble as Street worries about financials


Tuesday October 7, 6:43 pm ET
By Tim Paradis, AP Business Writer

Wall Street retreats as concerns about financials overshadow Fed plan to buy corporate debt

NEW YORK (AP) -- The misery worsened on Wall Street Tuesday, with stocks piling on losses late in the session and bringing the two-day decline in the Dow Jones industrials to more than 875 points amid escalating worries about credit markets and the financial sector.

The Dow lost more than 500 points and all the major indexes slid more than 5 percent. The Standard & Poor's 500 index saw its first close below 1,000 in five years.

Steps by the Federal Reserve to reinvigorate the dormant credit markets ultimately weren't enough to calm nervous investors. News about financial companies only added to their despondent mood.

"The calls I'm getting -- every money manager I deal with, and every client I talk to -- are just very emotional. This is a very, very emotional time, and most of them are taking steps to shore up their defenses, reducing exposure to stocks just to defend their portfolios," said Hugh Johnson, chairman and chief investment officer of Johnson Illington Advisors.

The magnitude of the stock market's plunge is reflected in the Dow's grim stats:

-- Tuesday's close was its lowest close in five years, since Sept. 30, 2003.

-- In just five trading days this month, and in the fourth quarter, it is down about 1,400 points, or 13 percent.

-- It has fallen 33.3 percent since its record close of 14,164.53, a year ago Thursday.

-- Through Tuesday, it suffered its largest five-day point decline ever, and its largest five-day percentage drop since the Sept. 11, 2001, terror attacks.

The Dow's percentage loss Tuesday was 5.11 percent, actually a better performance than the 5.74 percent suffered by the S&P, the market indicator most watched by traders and analysts. The Nasdaq composite dropped 5.8 percent.

The market's paper loss for the session came to about $700 billion, as measured by the Dow Jones Wilshire 5000 Composite Index, which tracks 5,000 U.S.-based companies' stocks. So far this month, the loss has come to about $2.2 trillion.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke warned in a speech Tuesday that the financial crisis could prolong the difficulty the economy is facing. While his remarks were widely regarded as a sign that an interest rate cut could be in the offing, Wall Street appeared little comforted and focused on his downbeat assessment.

Earlier, the Fed announced plans to buy massive amounts of corporate debt to jump-start lending in the markets where many companies turn for short-term loans called commercial paper. The evaporation of faith that loans will be repaid has lenders weary and is making it more difficult and expensive for businesses and consumers to borrow.

The credit markets did show some slight signs of easing as demand for safe-haven investments decreased, though that offered little comfort to investors highly anxious about the extremely low lending levels and their impact on the economy. The markets seized up last month after Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. filed for bankruptcy and the government stepped in to rescue insurer American International Group Inc.

The Fed's latest move to lubricate the credit markets stops short of a broad interest rate reduction that some investors say is necessary to restore confidence in the market. Other market watchers argue, however, that more focused steps like Fed's decision to buy commercial paper are what's needed.

Investors remain worried about financial companies like Bank of America Corp., which fell after slashing its dividend and reporting that its third-quarter profit fell 68 percent. The stock fell $8.45, or 26 percent, to $23.77 Tuesday. It was by far the steepest decliner among the 30 stocks that comprise the Dow industrials.

And a rumor that Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. was pulling out of a deal to acquire up to 24.9 percent of the voting shares of Morgan Stanley sent the investment bank's stock tumbling $5.85, or 25 percent, to $17.65. The companies denied the rumor, but the Street was panicky enough that it still sent Morgan Stanley and other financials tumbling.

Investors are fearful that financial companies will continue to face cash shortages even with efforts in Washington and by other governments to resuscitate lending.

"It's such a widespread loss of confidence and, to some extent, a race for the exits," Johnson said.

Stocks ended lower for the fifth straight session. The Dow fell 508.39, or 5.11 percent, to 9,447.11. The drop came a day after the blue chips fell below 10,000 for the first time in four years. The Dow skidded as much as 800 points on Monday before finishing with a loss of 370.

Broader indexes also fell. The S&P 500 index declined 60.66, or 5.74 percent, to 996.23, the first close below the 1,000 mark since September 2003. The Nasdaq composite index fell 108.08, or 5.80 percent, to 1,754.88.

The dollar was mostly lower against other major currencies, while gold prices rose.

Oil prices rebounded after plunging Monday to an eight-month low on concerns a global recession will undermine demand for crude. Light, sweet crude rose $2.25 to settle at $90.06 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Concerns about the credit markets still fed demand for the relative safety of government debt, though pressures eased. The yield on the three-month Treasury bill, which moves opposite its price, rebounded to 0.81 percent from 0.50 percent late Monday. Demand for short-term Treasurys remains high because of their safety; investors are willing to take extremely low returns just to have their money in a secure place.

Some investors moved out of longer-term Treasury bonds, which don't draw as much demand as shorter-term debt in times of fear. The yield on the 10-year note rose to 3.51 percent from 3.45 percent late Monday.

Investors are still hoping to see other moves from the Fed to boost confidence. Australia's central bank lowered interest rates by the largest amount since 1992 in a surprise move, and that reignited hopes that others, including the Fed and European Central Bank, might follow suit.

Though not giving the market a rate cut, the Fed has taken other steps to help unclog the credit markets. On Tuesday, policymakers provided more details about when it will make $900 billion in short-term loans available to squeezed banks.

The loans are made available to banks through auctions. The Fed, in coordination with other countries' central banks engaged in similar efforts, laid out dates that it will conduct the auctions through the rest of this year.

But write-downs of bad debt at Bank of America are a reminder to investors that troubles within the financial sector remain, according to Kim Caughey, equity research analyst at Fort Pitt Capital Group.

"I think we have weeks of volatility ahead of us," she said. "We're not overly optimistic but we're not indulging in doom and gloom either."

She said the arrival of quarterly results from corporations has made investors even more jittery, with investors seeking any information about how companies are faring. She said some companies could go under because of the tough economic conditions but that the stronger players would survive.

"You're going to get that Darwinian shakeout process. That's going to happen from the mom and pops all the way up to the big boys," she said.

Minutes from the Fed's last meeting described a U.S. economy that was slowing considerably and credit markets that were deteriorating rapidly. The meeting was held Sept. 16, the day after the failure of Lehman Brothers. The central bank's Open Market Committee found the risks from weaker growth and higher inflation were roughly equal; that was its rationale for leaving rates unchanged. Policymakers, who will meet again at the end of the month, left key interest rate unchanged at 2 percent.

About 2,800 stocks declined on the New York Stock Exchange, while fewer than 400 advanced. Consolidated volume came to 6.84 billion shares, compared with 7.81 billion shares traded Monday.

The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies fell 36.96, or 6.20 percent, to 558.95.

Overseas, Japan's Nikkei stock average fell 3.03 percent. Britain's FTSE 100 rose 0.35 percent, Germany's DAX index fell 1.12 percent, and France's CAC-40 rose 0.55 percent.

 

Monday, October 6, 2008

More than 9,000 Mortgage Jobs Slashed


Employers slashed more than 9,000 mortgage jobs in the third quarter, according to employment data tracked by MortgageDaily.com.

From July 1 to Sept. 30, MortgageDaily.com tracked 10,131 U.S. mortgage layoffs and 996 mortgage hirings. Layoffs exceeded hirings by 9,135.

The findings were based on an analysis of 38 companies that either added or eliminated employees in the latest quarter. The report also reflected jobs lost when companies collapsed. California had the biggest mortgage job losses of any state.

Top 5 States for Mortgage Job Losses
1. California: -1,914
2. New Jersey: -495
3. Pennsylvania: -266
4. Illinois: -245
5. Iowa: -190

Top 5 Companies for Mortgage Job Losses
1. Residential Capital LLC: -3,239
2. IndyMac Bank FSB: -3,050
3. Wachovia Corp.: -625
4. Mid Atlantic Capital LLC: -600
5. Carteret Mortgage Corp: -400

Government reports indicate that mortgage employment this year has decreased from 358,500 on June 30 to 349,100 on Aug. 31. The organization with the biggest net job increase was HUD, which indicated it would add 300 jobs to meet growing FHA demand.

Not included in the third-quarter figures were potential layoffs from JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s acquisition of failed Washington Mutual Bank, which has more than 43,000 employees; Wachovia, which had disclosed plans to eliminate around 5,000 mortgage jobs before a battle erupted between Wells Fargo & Co. and Citigroup Inc. over who will take it over; or Bank of America Corp., which said it would eliminate 7,500 positions after acquiring Countrywide Financial Corp.

Source: MortgageDaily.com

Sunday, October 5, 2008

How, and when, the $700 billion bailout should help economy

by Russ Wiles - Oct. 4, 2008 12:00 AM
The Arizona Republic

As Congress ended a tumultuous week by passing an emergency bill to prop up the economy, an anxious public wonders: How long until the legislation shows results?

Supporters expect to see more loans getting approved, certain interest rates easing and stock-market volatility tapering off within a few weeks.

Nineteen chambers of commerce from across Arizona, representing 20,000 businesses, sent a letter to the state's congressional representatives this week, urging support for the revamped bill.

The legislation "sends a signal to the global economy that, in a bipartisan manner, the government will take important steps to calm the markets and create a climate where sensible lending can continue," said Glenn Hamer, president and chief executive officer of the Arizona Chamber of Commerce and Industry.

The core of the legislation will allow the Treasury to buy up to $700 billion in distressed mortgage-backed securities from banks to get credit flowing again. But the bill also includes enhanced deposit insurance, relief from the Alternative Minimum Tax and extensions for several tax breaks and other provisions, including some not directly related to any financial rescue.

"Psychologically, this will enable banks to open credit and mortgage markets," said John Mathis, a finance and banking professor at the Thunderbird School of Global Management in Glendale. "It could have an almost immediate impact."

But, he added, the focus is different from the previous bill defeated in the House. It has moved toward assisting consumers and homeowners in addition to aiding financial institutions.

"It's more of a rescue package for the entire economy," Mathis said.

Ripple effects

While some results could be felt quickly, Mathis cautioned it would take at least a couple of weeks before the Treasury actually starts buying bad assets from banks, allowing them to improve their balance sheets enough that they'll feel comfortable lending again.

At that point, there should be an easing of "counterparty risk" - the danger that the party on the other end of a loan or investment is heading toward default.

Although critics have questioned whether the legislation would ease the anxiety of shell-shocked bankers, Mathis said he believed that it would.

Other effects of the rescue bill should be felt soon as well. If credit concerns ease and consumer and business confidence rises, they could serve as catalysts to the economy.


• As the government buys up loans in the weeks and months ahead, it will rewrite terms on some of those borrowings to help homeowners stay in their dwellings, Mathis said.


• The bill also could ease certain interest rates, especially a short-term bank rate called LIBOR, or the London Interbank Offered Rate, which has risen sharply in recent weeks relative to rates on Treasury bills - a sign of anxiety among bankers.


• Yields on Treasury bills should start to rise as investors grow more comfortable with riskier securities, said David Daughtrey, an investment adviser at Copperwynd Financial in Scottsdale.

Many investors had grown so skittish of risk that they bid up the prices of some Treasury bills so high that their yields approached zero percent. (On bond instruments, prices and yields move in opposite directions.)


• Approval of the bill also might ease some of the extreme stock-market volatility of recent weeks.

"We'll have fewer days when $1.2 trillion in wealth gets wiped out," said Hamer, referring to the 777-point drop in the Dow Jones industrial average on Sept. 29, the day the original bill was defeated.

However, an initial 312-point gain early Friday for the Dow evaporated by the closing bell. The index finished down 157 points at 10,325, capping the stock market's worst week since the Sept. 11, 2001, aftermath.

Recession fears

With the bailout approved, many worried traders apparently shifted their attention to other signs of weakness in the economy.

Whether the legislation is enough to prevent a recession is an open question, especially since softness already is abundant. The latest signal, released Friday: a 159,000 drop in payroll jobs in September, pushing unemployment to 6.1 percent.

Even if the bill doesn't prevent a recession, it will ease the severity of any downturn, many financial experts insist.

"I think this is necessary to protect us from going into a very serious recession," Daughtrey said.

Mathis said central banks from several countries have injected cash into the system, helping to stabilize short-term interest rates.

"Now the Treasury will be putting money into the longer end of the credit market, where business decisions are made," he said.

Some observers also predict the Federal Reserve will cut its funds rate before its next scheduled meeting later this month.

Even if the rescue bill and other actions restore confidence and more loans get approved as expected, it won't mark a return of the free-flowing credit spigot of a few years ago.

"We won't go back to the lax lending standards of the past," said Keith Wibel, a financial adviser at Foothills Asset Management in Scottsdale.

"Businesses, governments and individuals will have to relearn a basic concept - that they'll need to spend less than they make."

 

Quick fixes unlikely in economic meltdown

Critics' ideas beyond bailout are unlikely to be a cure-all

by Steven Pearlstein - Oct. 3, 2008 12:00 AM
Washington Post

WASHINGTON - To hear it from critics on the left and right, the Bush administration and legislative leaders were in such a rush to pass a $700 billion bailout for Wall Street that they failed to consider much simpler, cheaper, common-sense approaches.

In fact, all of their ideas were considered as part of a contingency planning process over the past year at the Treasury and the Federal Reserve. Some of the ideas were incorporated in various forms in the bill voted down by the House on Monday, while none is likely to be the silver bullet that proponents suggest.


• Raise the limit on deposit insurance. One idea, supported by the two presidential candidates and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., is to raise the limit on deposits covered by the government's insurance program from $100,000 per individual account to $250,000.

Here's the problem: Increasing the insurance limit will encourage the weakest banks to lure "hot money" with high interest rates. They would then use the deposits to take big lending risks in the hope of returning to financial health.


• Suspend mark-to-market accounting. This idea has a big following among conservatives.

"Fair value" accounting rules require banks to value certain loans and securities on their books - those that they don't intend to hold forever - at the price that they are currently trading at on secondary loan markets. That's generally a sound idea when those markets are working well. But now that those markets have virtually collapsed because there aren't enough buyers, prices have plummeted well below what their economic value would be if held until maturity.

There is an easy compromise here: Require banks to disclose market prices right alongside their own estimates of "fair value." Let the investors decide which to rely on.


• Provide relief to homeowners, not Wall Street. This is the favored approach of liberals.

Congress earlier this year appropriated $300 billion to authorize the Federal Housing Administration to refinance troubled mortgages if lenders agree to reduce the amount of outstanding principal and homeowners agree to share some of their future home-price appreciation with the government.

Some have suggested that the government go further by providing direct subsides to homeowners facing foreclosure. While that may sound like a "trickle-up" strategy, it would be every bit as much a bailout for lenders as it is for homeowners. (Who do you think would end up with the money?)


• Recapitalize the banks, don't buy their lousy loans.
In fact, the much-maligned House bill would have given the Treasury secretary wide latitude to use any portion of the $700 billion to recapitalize financial institutions before they failed, in exchange for stock or stock warrants, just as the government did when it took control of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and AIG.

But recapitalizing the entire banking system would require an initial outlay of much more than $700 billion, and involve the government in the ownership of hundreds of institutions. Given the widespread fear of lending to or investing in banks until the full extent of their lousy lending becomes clear, there's a good chance that injecting large amounts of government capital wouldn't do much to attract additional private capital, or even get banks to begin lending again.

What we've got on our hands is a big, hairy, complicated mess. Beware of smooth-talking salesmen with hidden agendas peddling magic potions.

 

Wednesday, October 1, 2008

Key parts of housing relief act take effect

by J. Craig Anderson - Oct. 1, 2008 12:00 AM
The Arizona Republic

A number of measures enacted by July's U.S. Housing and Economic Recovery Act take effect today, altering the economic landscape for Arizona home buyers and homeowners.

The most talked-about change is the federal HOPE Act, which allocates up to $300 billion for borrowers in default on their mortgages, and those in danger of default, to refinance their adjustable-rate loans to fixed-rate, Federal Housing Administration-insured mortgages at no more than 90 percent of current market value.

However, many in the housing industry say the law won't have much impact on the foreclosure rate because lenders are not obligated to participate in the program.

Another provision that has received some attention is the elimination of seller-funded down-payment-assistance programs for FHA borrowers, which also takes effect today.

The ban will virtually eliminate no-down-payment offers on new homes. FHA officials requested the ban, saying loans issued with down-payment assistance carry a default rate three times higher than traditional FHA loans and inflate their market value.

The housing act also places a one-year moratorium on "risk-based" FHA loan insurance premiums, a program initiated in July to charge borrowers based on the likelihood of loan repayment. It streamlines the process for issuing FHA-insured loans on condominiums and reforms the FHA loan process for manufactured homes.

In addition, it authorizes a pilot program to generate alternative credit-rating information for loan applicants with insufficient credit history.

The law also affects reverse-mortgage borrowers by requiring that they receive "adequate counseling" from a third party not associated with the lender, and it allows the government to create a counseling program funded by mortgage insurance premiums.

It also reduces possible conflicts of interest by forbidding reverse-mortgage loan originators from selling insurance, annuities or other financial products. They may not give or receive incentives from others to sell such products to reverse-mortgage borrowers.

The law also places a $6,000 cap on origination fees, which will be adjusted periodically for inflation.