D.C. Dances Around Tax Credit Extension

Washington is being forced to take a hard look at the expiring $8,000 first-time homebuyer tax credit.

Nearly a dozen bills have been proposed to extend the credit past the Nov. 30 deadline, but the top decision makers are just beginning to weigh in.

On Thursday, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid endorsed a six-month extension. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said Thursday that he hasn’t made a decision yet. And the White House economic team says it will make a recommendation to President Barack Obama by the end of Friday.

Extending the credit is a tough sell in some corners because so far the credit has cost an estimated $15 billion, twice what was projected last February.

Source: The Associated Press, Adrian Sainz (09/17/2009)

Credit Market Makes Economists Nervous

Interest rates are low and home prices are down, but banks continue to be stingy with loans.

At the height of the housing boom, seven out of 10 mortgages were approved. At the end of 2008, only five out of 10 got the green light. During the boom years, homebuyers could qualify for the cheapest rates with a credit score of 660. Today, they need 740 or better.

"Banks are going to be in a defensive posture for several years. Most borrowers can't meet their criteria," says Christopher Whalen, managing director at research firm Institutional Risk Analytics.

Consumers cut back borrowing by $21.6 billion from June to July, the biggest drop since the Federal Reserve began keeping records in 1943. That made some analysts nervous.

The reduction in borrowing could slow the economic recovery, says David Olson, president of Access Mortgage Research & Consulting.

"If they cut back, it would be catastrophic," Olson says. "We could have a second downturn."

Source: The Associated Press, Stevenson Jacobs (09/17/2009)

Congress Gets Report on Cutting MID

The Congressional Budget Office has prepared a report that suggests ways for Congress to raise revenues. One key suggestion is that Congress cut deductions for home owner mortgage interest from the present $1.1 million cap to $500,000, phasing in the reduction by $100,000 annually starting in 2013.

Over a 10-year period, the change would increase revenue by an estimated $41 billion.

Alternatively, the CBO proposed replacing mortgage interest deductions with a flat tax credit that is 15 percent of mortgage interest paid. This would potentially increase revenue by nearly $390 billion from 2013 to 2019.

It also proposed eliminating deductions for all state and local taxes, including property taxes, which would cost taxpayers $862 billion by 2019.

What are the odds these ideas will fly? In the past, the mortgage deduction has been sacred. These days, some analysts say it may be vulnerable.

Source: Washington Post Writers Group, Kenneth R. Harney (08/30/2009)

Mortgage Applications Slide

Mortgage application volume declined 2.2 percent last week on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising for four straight weeks, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

On an unadjusted basis, the index decreased 3.1 percent compared with the previous week, but it was up 22.7 percent compared with the same week a year ago.

Both refinances and purchases were down slightly from the previous week. The only application segment to rise was government-backed loans, which rose 0.5 percent.

Mortgage interest rates actually decreased for the week:

• 30-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 5.15 percent from 5.24 percent;
• 15-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 4.57 percent from 4.58 percent;
• 1-year ARMs decreased to 6.71 percent from 6.74 percent.

Source: Mortgage Bankers Association (09/02/2009)

Pending Home Sales on a Record Roll

Contract activity for pending home sales has risen for six straight months, a pattern not seen in the history of the index since it began in 2001, according to the National Association of REALTORS®.

The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in July, increased 3.2 percent to 97.6 from a reading of 94.6 in June. It is 12 percent higher than July 2008 when it was 87.1. The index is at the highest level since June 2007, when it was 100.7.

Affordability at Record High

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says the housing market momentum has clearly turned for the better.

“The recovery is broad-based across many parts of the country. Housing affordability has been at record highs this year with the added stimulus of a first-time buyer tax credit,” he says.

“Other buyers are taking advantage of low home values before prices turn higher," Yun says. "Nationally, the typical mortgage payment now takes less than 25 percent of a middle-income family’s monthly income to buy a median priced home, with payment percentages so far in 2009 being the lowest on record dating back to 1970. As long as home buyers stay within their budget, mortgage payments will be very manageable."

First-Time Buyers

NAR estimates that about 1.8 to 2 million first-time buyers will take advantage of the $8,000 tax credit this year, with approximately 350,000 additional sales that would not have taken place without the credit. Buyers have little time to act because they must complete the transaction by Nov. 30 to qualify for the credit. Unless extended, contracts signed but not completed by that date will not be eligible – it is taking approximately two months to complete home sales in the current market.

By Region

• Northeast: The Pending Home Sales Index declined 3 percent to 78.8 in July but is 4.7 percent higher than July 2008.
• Midwest: The index slipped 2 percent to 88.1 but is 8.1 percent above a year ago.
• South: Pending home sales activity rose 3.1 percent to an index of 103.8 in July and is 12 percent above July 2008.
• West: The index jumped 12.1 percent to 112.5 and is 20 percent above a year ago.

"Keep the Momentum Going"

NAR President Charles McMillan says Congress needs to keep the momentum going.

“Even with a good recovery taking place, the market is not yet back to normal. With a gradual absorption of inventory, we are on the cusp of a general stabilization in home prices,” he says. “To ensure that housing has a broad stimulus to the overall economy and stays on sound footing, we’re encouraging Congress to extend the tax credit into 2010, and to expand it to all buyers of primary residences. The faster we stabilize home prices, the fewer families will face foreclosure and the quicker credit can be extended to other sectors of the economy.”

NAR’s Housing Affordability Index stood at 158.5 in July, below the peak set in April but is still 36 percentage points higher than a year ago. The HAI is a broad measure of housing affordability using consistent values and assumptions over time, which examines the relationship between home prices, mortgage interest rates, and family income.

Yun expects existing-home sales to rise through the fourth quarter.

“Unless the tax credit is extended, no one should be surprised to see home sales drop in the first quarter of next year,” he says. “However, the fundamentals of the housing market and the economy are trending up, and we expect home sales to generally pick up in the second quarter of 2010. The buyer psychology may be shifting from, ‘Why buy now when I can purchase later?’ to ‘I don’t want to miss out on a recovery.’”

Source: NAR

Commercial Mortgage Defaults Jump for U.S. Banks

Bloomberg

By Hui-yong Yu

Last Updated: August 31, 2009 16:04 EDT

 

Aug. 31 (Bloomberg) -- The default rate on commercial mortgages held by U.S. banks more than doubled in the second quarter from a year earlier amid falling rents and occupancies for malls, office buildings and warehouses.

Loans that were 90 days or more past due climbed to 2.88 percent of outstanding balances in the second quarter, from 1.18 percent a year earlier, according to New York-based property research firm Real Estate Econometrics LLC. Defaults increased from 2.25 percent in the first quarter.

“A delinquency may have resolved itself two years ago,” said Real Estate Econometrics President and Chief Economist Sam Chandan. “Today, even one missed payment may be more indicative of an underlying problem, so banks have to be very proactive in addressing the issue.”

Banks held $1.087 trillion of commercial property loans in the quarter, up from $1.077 trillion in the previous three months. That’s almost 15 percent of all loans and leases held by banks, Real Estate Econometrics said. Defaults are rising both for lenders who hold commercial mortgages and for bondholders in the $700 billion U.S. market for securities backed by commercial mortgages.

The CMBS market accounts for about 22 percent of the nation’s $3.4 trillion in commercial real estate debt, according to the Real Estate Roundtable. Defaults and late payments on loans bundled into CMBS could surpass 7 percent by the end of this year, research firm Reis Inc. said on July 30.

Falling Behind

Banks are beginning to recognize that more past due commercial property loans are unlikely to be paid in full. Commercial mortgages labeled as “non-accrual” more than doubled in the second quarter from a year earlier, to $27.76 billion, according to Real Estate Econometrics. The figure reflected a 31 percent increase from the previous three months.

Commercial defaults will rise to 4.1 percent by year’s end, a rate last seen in 1993, according to Chandan’s forecast. Overdue commercial property loans reached 4.6 percent in 1992 during the savings and loan crisis, when the U.S. created the Resolution Trust Corp. to sell off real estate and non- performing mortgages held by insolvent lenders.

This year’s first-quarter default rate was the highest since 1994, Real Econometrics said.

The credit crisis and recession mean lower occupancies and rents for apartment buildings, offices, shopping malls, warehouses and hotels.

Apartment Defaults

U.S. apartment vacancies may rise to 7.8 percent by the end of this year and break the record 8 percent in 2010 as unemployment worsens and the supply of new apartments increases, according to New York-based Reis.

The default rate on bank-held mortgages for apartment buildings climbed to 3.13 percent in the second quarter from 1.20 percent a year earlier, according to Real Estate Econometrics.

A loan is delinquent when it’s 30 to 89 days past due and in default when 90 or more days late.

To contact the reporter on this story: Hui-yong Yu in Seattle at hyu@bloomberg.net

Option ARMs Put Recovery at Risk

Option ARMs, which accounted for $750 billion in mortgages issued between 2004 and 2007, according to Inside Mortgage Finance, are at serious risk with at least 50 percent already in default.

Resets on option ARMS have doubled the payments for many holders.

“Everyone’s been focused on subprime, but we’re more concerned about this,” says Todd Jadlos, managing director of LPS Applied Analytics, which analyzes data for the financial industry. “By the time subprime defaults had increased 200 percent, in June and July of 2007, option ARMs had gone up 400 percent. People just didn’t notice because the overall numbers weren’t as high.”

Lenders have stopped offering option ARMS, but there are about 600,000 held by borrowers, three-quarters of whom are paying interest only. When the cap is reached – for most after they have held the loan for five years – they’ll face drastic increases.

Barclays Capital estimates that banks will lose $112 billion on option ARMs. Some banks are aggressively refinancing these loans, Barclays says.

Source: The New York Times, John Leland (08/26/2009)

First-Time Buyer Tax Credit Extension Possible

Bills to extend the maximum $8,000 tax credit for first-time home buyers, which expires Nov. 30, are pending in both the U.S. House and the Senate.

Sen. Christopher J. Dodd, a Connecticut Democrat and chairman of the Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee, is co-sponsor of a bill with Georgia Republican Sen. Johnny Isakson that would raise the credit amount to a maximum of $15,000.

Senate Majority Leader Harry M. Reid of Nevada favors an extension of the current credit. He was quoted by the Las Vegas Sun saying, "It's something we can get done."

Odds are that the credit will be extended and broadened to cover all buyers next year, but the chances of the amount increasing aren’t as good, observers say.

Source: Washington Post Writers Group, Kenneth R. Harney (08/22/2009)

Delinquencies Climb

Summary of Mortgage Bankers Press Release 8/20/2009 from Carolyn Kemp - http://www.mbaa.org/NewsandMedia/PressCenter/70050.htm

 

The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties rose to a seasonally adjusted rate of 9.24 percent of all loans outstanding as of the end of the second quarter of 2009, up 12 basis points from the first quarter of 2009, and up 283 basis points from one year ago, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) National Delinquency Survey. The non-seasonally adjusted delinquency rate increased 64 basis points from 8.22 percent in the first quarter of 2009 to 8.86 percent this quarter.

 

Not good news when looking for signs of a recovery.

 

Banks Plan to Keep Lending Tight

Banks tightened standards for all types of loans in the second quarter, the Federal Reserve reported Monday.

About 35 percent of senior loan officials said they tightened standards somewhat and none of the 51 responding banks said they loosened standards for prime mortgages. The rest said their standards for mortgages remained the same or were substantially stronger.

Banks also told the Fed that they expected to maintain strict lending standards until at least the second half of 2010.

“Most banks have woken up to the fact that there is a lot more risk in their loan books than they ever thought possible,” says Joel Conn, president of Lakeshore Capital LLC in Birmingham, Ala. That has caused many banks to reconsider their requirements for future lending, Conn says.

Source: Bloomberg, Craig Torres (08/17/2009)

Buyers Rush to Beat Tax Credit Deadline

Real estate professionals report that first-time home buyers are flooding the sale market, pressed to finalize a deal before the federal government's $8,000 tax credit offer expires on Nov. 30.

Because mortgage approvals, residential inspections, and other steps in the buying process typically take about two months, buyers hoping to take advantage of the incentive will need to have a contract by the end of September.

The new flurry of activity now as house-hunters try to meet the deadline is triggering bidding wars and energizing the property market, which historically is slow at the end of summer. As a result, more homes are getting their full asking price.

Source: Chicago Tribune, Kathleen Lynn (08/14/09)

Foreclosures rise 7 percent in July from June

By ALAN ZIBEL, AP Real Estate Writer Alan Zibel, Ap Real Estate Writer – Thu Aug 13, 1:50 pm ET

WASHINGTON – The number of U.S. households on the verge of losing their homes rose 7 percent from June to July, as the escalating foreclosure crisis continued to outpace government efforts to limit the damage.

Foreclosure filings were up 32 percent from the same month last year, RealtyTrac Inc. said Thursday. More than 360,000 households, or one in every 355 homes, received a foreclosure-related notice, such as a notice of default or trustee's sale. That's the highest monthly level since the foreclosure-listing firm began publishing the data more than four years ago.

Banks repossessed more than 87,000 homes in July, up from about 79,000 homes a month earlier.

Nevada had the nation's highest foreclosure rate for the 31st-straight month, followed by California, Arizona, Florida and Utah. Rounding out the top 10 were Idaho, Georgia, Illinois, Colorado and Oregon. Among cities, Las Vegas had the highest rate, followed by the California cities of Stockton and Modesto.

While there have been numerous recent signs that the ailing U.S. housing market is finally stabilizing after three years of plunging prices, foreclosures remain a big concern. Foreclosures are typically sold at a deep discount, hurting neighbors' home values.

The mortgage industry has been slow to adapt to the surge in foreclosures. Many lenders have needed government prodding to get up to speed with the Obama administration's plan to stem foreclosures.

The Treasury Department said last week that banks have extended only 400,000 offers to 2.7 million eligible borrowers who are more than two months behind on their payments. More than 235,000, or 9 percent, those borrowers have enrolled in three-month trials in which their monthly payments are reduced.

"The volume of loans that are in distress simply overwhelms" those efforts, said Rick Sharga, RealtyTrac's senior vice president for marketing.

Vacancies Still Strain Commercial Properties

Commercial real estate is feeling the pain as retailers cut back on rental space in light of unemployment and a weak economy.

Just this week, Maguire Properties Inc., which owns office buildings in Southern California, walked away from seven of its properties because it couldn’t pay the mortgages and may abandon others, according to rating agency Realpoint.

"The bottom line: defaults are exploding," said Richard Parkus, an analyst with Deutsche Bank. "It's terrible. It's going to be worse than in the early '90s."

Source: The Associated Press, Alex Veiga (08/12/2009)

Foreclosures Still Up in Sun Belt, Midwest

Foreclosure filings in July, including default notices, scheduled auctions, and bank repossessions, were up 7 percent compared to June and increased 32 percent from July 2008, according to RealtyTrac.

One in every 355 U.S. housing units received a foreclosure filing in July, the third time in five months that foreclosures have reached a new high in the four years that RealTrac has been keeping records.

"Despite continued efforts by the federal government and state governments to patch together a safety net for distressed homeowners, we're seeing significant growth in both the initial notices of default and in the bank repossessions," said James J. Saccacio, CEO of RealtyTrac.

For the thirty-first consecutive month, Nevada had the nation’s highest state foreclosure rate with one in every 56 housing units receiving a filing in July. California was second with initial defaults spiking 15 percent compared to June. Other states that make up the 10 highest were: Arizona, Florida, Utah, Idaho, Georgia, Illinois, Colorado, and Oregon.

The 10 states with the highest actual foreclosures were California, Arizona, Nevada, Florida, Illinois, Texas, Georgia, Ohio, Michigan, and New Jersey.

Source: RealtyTrac (08/13/2009)

Economists Pronounce the Recession Over

The majority of economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal say the recession is over and Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke deserves another term.

Of the 47 economists the newspaper surveyed, 27 said the recession has ended and 11 predict another trough this month or next. The rest refused to commit. But they were nearly unanimous is saying that Bernanke should be rehired.

Gross domestic product is expected to grow 2.4 percent in the third quarter at a seasonally adjusted annual rate. Economists were also heartened by a better-than-expected jobless report in July.

Source: The Wall Street Journal, Phil Izzo (08/12/2009)