Report: Number of illegal migrants in Ariz., U.S. plummets

by Ronald J. Hansen - Jul. 31, 2008 12:00 AM
The Arizona Republic

The illegal-immigrant population has fallen an estimated 11 percent nationwide over the past year and perhaps even more in Arizona, with stricter law enforcement a likely cause, according to a report issued Wednesday by a Washington organization that promotes less immigration.

The apparent drop preceded a spike in unemployment claims, suggesting enforcement, not the nation's faltering economy, is responsible, said Steven Camarota, director of research for the Center for Immigration Studies. The drop of about 1 million illegal residents happened from August to May, the report says, even as the number of legal immigrants increased.

In Arizona, the number of illegal immigrants may have fallen as much as 18 percent since August, Camarota said, though the data is too spotty to say with confidence. The state, however, is among the leaders in declines, he said.

"There seems to be a sense among the illegals that the enforcement law is back in business," Camarota said.

Estimates before this study put the number of illegal immigrants at 12 million nationwide and 500,000 in Arizona.

Michele Waslin, a senior policy analyst for the Immigration Policy Center, an organization frequently at odds with Caramota's, agreed that the number of illegal immigrants may have fallen, but she thinks the report's conclusion about enforcement is wrong.

"It really misses the point. It's the economy. The economy is by far the biggest factor," she said.

Reliable data is always hard to find for illegal immigration, Waslin said, but unemployment figures in immigrant-heavy industries rose well before the August time frame emphasized in the report.

Caramota's report is drawn from Census Bureau data measuring the number of less-educated, working-age Hispanic immigrants.

Jeanine L'Ecuyer, a spokeswoman for Gov. Janet Napolitano, said a drop in illegal immigrants would be consistent with federal reports of a decline in apprehensions.

She said the U.S. Border Patrol's stepped-up efforts since 2006 seem to have helped.

"The economy?" L'Ecuyer said. "It's had an effect on everything else, so I'm sure it's a factor. But to what extent, who knows?"

Answers in Arizona are as elusive as anywhere. It is unclear, for example, how much the state's employer-sanctions law, which threatens to pull business licenses from those who knowingly employ illegal workers, contributed to any drop-off.

Arizona's housing industry began cooling off in mid-2006, and the state's overall economy has cratered for more than a year. Meanwhile, Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio has led roundups of illegal immigrants, helping stoke a more militant enforcement climate across the state.

Camarota said the enforcement matters also receive attention in Spanish-language media, further amplifying their effects. He likened it to the way all motorists slow down even if just one driver is stopped by police.

The 12-page report is the latest volley in a debate that for years has roiled the nation, especially its southern border states.

Last month, Wayne Cornelius, director of the Center for Comparative Immigration Studies at the University of California-San Diego, issued a report that said illegal immigration "clearly corresponds to changing U.S. economic conditions."