Recently in the news has been talk about there being an upswing in new construction and that is a sign of the market turning around. In this graph you can see the number of building permits in Maricopa county and there is the beginning of an upswing, but the market is still far from normal. The market should have about 3000 permits per month and we are just under 1000.
This graph shows the number of foreclosure notices and sales in Maricopa County. We should be around 2000 notices per month, but we are four times that rate. There is no obvious trend that shows a sign of slowing down. The moratorium from the beginning of the year has yielded record sales for this summer. I anticipate that there will be record number of bank owned properties coming on the market in August.
This is a graph of the available homes for sale in the MLS database. 2009 is the strong red line. As you can see we are on a heavy trend of shrinking inventory. The market would have a normal inventory of 30,000 to 35,000 units and we should be there at the current rate by the end of October.
This graphs shows the number of offers accepted per week in a year. The current volume of offers is in the range as was seen in 2004 and 2005. That is incredibly high.
Likewise this graph shows the number of closings per month. It shows closings are in the same range as in 2004 and 2005.
In conclusion the market activity is accelerating and I am seeing in the most competitive price ranges that it is hard to land a contract without having to bid up the price with multiple offers. The window for the "good deals" for investors is closing and the "easy deal" is gone. Depending on how the market adsorbs the coming foreclosures can determine if we are out of the downward cycle by the end of the year.
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